The Evil Black Economist: February 2017

The Evil Black Economist releases the 2016 Economic State of Black America report. The report is dedicated to Martin Luther King. The report is grouped into four sections: Wealth, Income, Health, and Happiness

This project grew out of a discussion over how to measure the impact of the Presidency of Barack Obama. President Obama is widely viewed as have a very successful presidency in terms of accomplishments and popularity. However his success was affected by two larger issues: the 2007 recession and 35 years of a shrinking middle class. He did have one major accomplishment and a slew of minor successes. His major legacy is improving health care access for 20 million who previously were uninsured.

Summary

Overall, Black Americans, like many in the US, are not doing well. The 2007 recession and financial crisis led to a huge number of foreclosures wiping out a huge amount of Black wealth. Jobs remain scarce. As of 2016 has Black unemployment has recovered to 2007 levels.. The Black unemployment rate of 7.8% is the same or below the 2007 rate. Black people have lost 10 years of income and wealth.

There is some good news. Incomes are slowly rising. More Blacks are participating in the labor force while White Men drop out. Blacks tend to work in Service and Transportation jobs. Black business ownership was flat in the latest survey.

Living in Poverty was report by 26% of Blacks. One in five (21.5%) Black households worries about food and 26% collect food stamps.

Educationally, we graduate high school at almost the same rate as Whites but attend college at a lower rate (10% difference). We graduate from college at an even lower rate(20% difference) as compared to Whites. Black student debt is estimated at twice that of Whites.

White economic indicators are trending flat or down, social and health indicators are moving in the right direction. Life expectancy has increased while infant mortality has decreased. Health insurance coverage is up and crime has dropped.

Finally, the measures of economic opportunity do not look good. By one estimate, a Black poor child has only a 4% chance of being a rich adult and a 50% chance of remaining a poor adult.

Finally, if you have a Black statistic you would like added to the report, please send and e-mail to:

evilblackeconomist@gmail.com

Thanks

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Wealth / Home Ownership / Housing Statistics

Net Worth

Net worth is the most basic measure of wealth. It is the value of assets a household controls. Middle class people in the US usually have one large asset: their home. The rich have multiple real estate properties and investment assets. The poor have no assets at all.

The table below lists household assets from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances. The median (one-half above and one-half below) is a better measure of assets because people like Oprah and Bob Johnson (BET) skew the average number.

The ratio of Black wealth to White wealth was 12/100 meaning Blacks has just 12% of the assets of Whites and Whites were 8 times richer than Blacks.

	2013 Median	2013 Mean	Median Ratio to White
White	$139,857	$572,870	100%
Black	17,387	101,736	12.4%
Hispanic/Latino	15,758	126,808	11.3%
Other	84,284	460,960	60.3%

Here is the trend over the past 12 years. Black home ownership took a huge hit during the last recession.

Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finance, 2013

Home Ownership

Total Stock Levels (in Thousands[000])

	2011	2013	2015
Total	114,907	115,852	118,290
White	92,820	93,284	93,760
Black	14,694	15,015	15,998
Hispanic/Latino	13,841	14,675	15,617
Asian	4,620	4,725	5,477

Source: US Census, American Housing Survey

Home Ownership Rate

The Black home ownership rate has recovered since the 2007 recession but still trails the White rate by more than 30%. Home Ownership Rate is the number of household

	4Q 2016 Rate
Total	63.7%
White	72.2%
Black	41.7%
Hispanic/Latino	46.3%
Other	53.7%

Chart of US home ownership rates over time period 2013 to 2016.

Source: US Census, Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Home Ownership, Q4 2016. Note: 4Q 2016 was released as we went to press.

Mortgage Loans

The primary way people build assets in the US is through home ownership. And the main way to buy a home is with a mortgage loan. However, the mortgage loan market has under gone a huge crisis. In the 2000's the "sub-prime" mortgage market was developed and in the 2007 it collapsed. Now we are in a slow recovery from that event.

The majority of Black mortgages are non-conventional mortgages.

Black 2013 Mortgage Loan Applications 186,074/ Originated 113,723

Black 2014 Mortgage Loan Applications 206,182 / Originated 130,176

We continue to see lower rates of loans made to Black applicants. Also, a higher percentage of the loan are non-conventional loans when compared to Whites.

Source: 2016 State of Housing in Black American. NAREB.

www.nareb.com/site-files/uploads/2016/08/NAREB-SHIBA-REPORT-2016-final.pdf

Income

Median Weekly Earnings

	2015	2016
White	$847	$881
Black	$643	$675
Hispanic	$624	$646
Asian	$1,022	$1,092

Black / White 2016 Ratio 80%

Black Men / White Men 2016 Ratio 78%

Black Women / White Women 2016 Ratio 84%

Here is a chart of median weekly earnings for the period 2000-2016.

Source: BLS, 2016, Median Usual Weekly Earnings from CPS

Household Income

Black households have a median (half above and half below) income of about earn about $37,000 dollars.

Median Household Income

	2014	2015	Change
White	$56,931	$60,109	5.6%
Black	$35,439	$36,898	4.1%
Hispanic	$42,540	$45,148	6.1%
Asian	$74,382	$77,166	3.7%

Below is a graph of the trend since 1972.

Source: US Census, Table 1, Income and Earnings Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2014 and 2015

Total Income for Population

One common question is: "How much money do Black people in the US earn collectively?" Well, there are two different measures: one is income and the other is called "Total Money Income (TMI)" which includes transfer payments. In 2015, we earned $610 Billion in income and had a TMI of $898 billion.

The figure for Black Alone or in Combination is even larger at $949 Billion. Black AOIC includes Black people and mixed race and Hispanic people who identify as Black.

Household Income from "Income and Poverty in US 2015, Table 1"
Population and Income in Thousands (000)

Pop. 2014

2014
Income

Pop.
2015

2015
Income

Total
Change

Pop. Change

Real Income Change

Total

124,587

$6,692,582,175

125,819

$7,110,750,203

6.25%

0.99%

5.26%

White

84,228

$5,081,073,004

84,445

$5,315,788,959

4.62%

0.26%

4.36%

Black

16,437

$582,500,308

16,539

$610,251,324

4.76%

0.62%

4.14%

Asian

6,040

$449,282,718

6,328

$488,345,903

8.69%

4.77%

3.92%

Hisp./Latino

16,239

$690,803,479

16,667

$752,466,015

8.93%

2.63%

6.29%

Total Money Income from "Income and Poverty in US 2015, Table 1A"
Population and Income in Thousands (000)

Pop. 2014

2014
Income

Pop.
2015

2015
Income

Total
Change

Total

124,587

$9,446,822,385

125,819

$9,972,791,397

5.57%

White

84,228

$6,953,850,360

84,445

$7,227,225,325

3.93%

Black AOIC

17,198

$888,798,979

17,322

$949,332,210

6.81%

Black Alone

16,437

$843,035,960

16,539

$898,927,728

6.63%

Asian

6,040

$589,952,196

6,328

$667,078,776

13.07%

Hisp./Latino

16,239

$935,369,145

16,667

$1,060,221,204

13.35%

Occupations

Where do Black people work ?

Blacks are underrepresented in Management, Business, Science and the Arts(MBSA) and in Natural Resources and Farming, Construction and Maintenance(NRCM). They are over represented in Services and Transportation.

Key:
PTMM - Production, Transportation and Material Management

Occupations by Race 2015
	Occupation	Total	%	Male	%	Female	%
Total	Total	150,534,773	100%	79,120,041	100%	71,414,732	100%
	MBSA	---	37.1%	---	33.5%	---	44.1%
	Services	---	18.0%	---	14.8%	---	21.5%
	Sales & Office	---	23.6%	---	17.1%	---	30.8%
	NRCM	---	9.0%	---	31.1%	---	0.9%
	PTMM	---	12.3%	---	31.1%	---	5.8%
White	Total	112,857,159	100%	60,181,754	---	52,675,405	---
	MBSA	---	35.2%	---	33.5%	---	43.1%
	Services	---	43.1%	---	13.2%	---	19.5%
	Sales & Office	---	23.8%	---	17.1%	---	31.3%
	NRCM	---	9.6%	---	17.2%	---	0.9%
	PTMM	---	11.6%	---	17.3%	---	5.1%
Black	Total	17,198,924	100%	7,885,268	100%	9,313,656	100%
	MBSA	---	28.7%	---	22.8%	---	33.6%
	Services	---	25.0%	---	22.0%	---	27.5%
	Sales & Office	---	25.2%	---	18.7%	---	30.8%
	NRCM	---	5.1%	---	10.5%	---	0.6%
	PTMM	---	16.0%	---	26.0%	---	7.5%
Hispanic / Latino	Total	24,845,756	100%	14,055,426	100%	10,790,330	100%
	MBSA	---	20.5%	---	16.5%	---	25.7%
	Services	---	25.6%	---	21.1%	---	31.5%
	Sales & Office	---	21.9%	---	14.7%	---	31.3%
	NRCM	---	15.6%	---	26.1%	---	2.0%
	PTMM	---	16.3%	---	21.6%	---	9.5%
Asian	Total	8,633,703	100%	4,504,912	100%	4,128,791	100%
	MBSA	---	51.0%	---	52.1%	---	49.8%
	Services	---	16.7%	---	13.6%	---	20.2%
	Sales & Office	---	19.8%	---	16.7%	---	23.2%
	NRCM	---	2.9%	---	5.3%	---	0.4%
	PTMM	---	9.6%	---	12.4%	---	6.5%

Total Employment Levels

Black employment continues to grow while White employment is decreasing.

Black Employment 2016 18,292,000 people

Black Employment 2015 17,802,000 An increase of 490,000 people

Unemployment

Key Black Unemployment Rates at the end of 2016

Table Black Unemployment 7.8%

Black Men 7.6% (8.7% 2015)

Black Women 6.8% (7.1% 2015)

Black Teenagers 25.7%

The Black unemployment rate has traditionally been twice the White rate. The Black unemployment rate of 7.8% is the lowest since August 2007.

Labor Force Participation

The Black labor market participation rate has trended upward in the past year to 62.4% from a low of 60.3% in 2013. Blacks are returning to work as Whites drop out.

Source: BLS, January Labor Report and website

Business Ownership and Formation

Black business ownership has been flat while White owners have decreased and Hispanic and Asian business owners have increased.

Source: 2012 Survey of Business Owners and 2014 Survey of Entrepreneurs

Poverty

People in Poverty

	2014	% of Total Population	2015	% of Total Population
Total	46,657,000	14.8%	43,123,000	13.5%
White	19,652,000	10.1%	17,786,000	9.1%
Black	10,755,000	26.2%	10,020,000	24.1%
Hispanic/Latino	13,104,000	23.6%	12,133,000	21.4%
Asian	2,137,000	12.0%	2,078,000	11.4%

Source: US Census, Income and Poverty in the US, 2015

Child Poverty (18 and Under)

	2014	% of Total Population	2015	% of Total Population
Total	15,540,000	21.1%	14,509,000	19.7%
White	9,602,000	17.9%	9,204,000	17.2%
Black	4,090,000	37.1%	3,651,000	32.9%
Hispanic/Latino	5,745,000	31.9%	5,269,000	28.9%
Asian	524,000	14.0%	466,000	12.3%

Source: US Census, Income and Poverty in the US, 2015

Food Security by Household 2015

Food security is defined at three levels: 1) food secure, 2) low food security and 3) very low food security. Food secure is defined as "access at all times to enough food for an active, healthy
life for all household members." People who are food insecure do not meet condition one. They have either low food or very low food security. Very low food security is defined as "one or more household members had reduced eating patterns and their eating patterns were disrupted at times during the year because the household lacked money and other resources for food."

Race	Total	Food Secure	%	Insecure Total	Insecure %	Low	Low %	Very Low	Very Low %
White	83,931	75,563	90.0%	8,368	10.0%	4,759	5.7%	3,609	4.3%
Black	15,734	12,357	78.5	3,377	21.5	2,127	13.6	1,250	7.9
Hispanic	16,803	13,592	80.9	3,211	19.1	2,132	12.7	1,079	6.4
Other	8,695	7,803	89.7	892	10.3	521	6.0	371	4.3

Source: Household Food Security in the United States 2015, www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/err215/err-215.pdf

Food Stamps (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)

About 5.7 million Black households receive food stamps in 2015.

2015	Total (000)	%	Children	%	Elderly	%	Disabled	%
Total	22,293	100%	9,510	100%	4,361	100%	4,498	100%
White	8,757	39.3%	3,092	32.5%	1,857	42.6%	2,047	45.5%
Black	5,747	25.8%	2,335	24.5	915	21.0%	1,271	28.3%
Hispanic/Latino	2,538	11.4%	1,133	11.9	575	13.2%	347	7.7%
Asian	561	2.5%	194	2.0	250	5.7%	38	0.9%

Individual Food Stamps Participants

Eleven million Black people participate in the food stamp program.

2015	Total(000)	%	Female(000)	%	Male(000)	%
Total	45,184	100%	25,637	56.7	19,547	43.3
White	16,574	36.7%	9,405	20.8%	7,170	15.9%
Black	11,772	26.1%	6,846	15.2	4,926	10.9%
Hispanic/Latino	7,730	17.1%	4,336	9.6	3,394	7.5%
Asian	1,301	2.9%	716	1.6	585	1.3%

Children Raised by Single Parents (in 000)

Black Kids (18 old and under) Total 11,101

Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with both parents 4,294

Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with Mother 5,722

Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with Father 439

Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with Single Parent 55%

White 19%

Asian 13%

Hispanic 29%

Source: US Census, Families and Living Arrangements October 2016

www.census.gov/hhes/families/data/cps2016C.html

Education

Educational Attainment

	Total Pop. 18 and older	High School or Higher	% of Pop.	Bachelors or Higher	% of Pop.
	2015
Total	242,831,196	210,098,654	86.5%	66,036,180	27.2%
White	161,426,754	143,105,261	88.7%	50,142,764	31.1%
Black	24,689,835	20,678,704	83.8%	4,812,215	19.5%
Hisp./Latino	29,952,299	19,439,898	64.9%	4,275,337	14.3%
Asian	11,220,496	9,647,290	86.0%	5,770,522	51.4%

Source: 2015 American Community Survey

Graduation Rate from 4-year program

Black 6 year or less college graduation rate (2008-2014) 40.9%

Black Male 35.3%

Black Female 44.8%
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White 63%

Black 41%

Hispanic 53%

Asian 71%

4 Year College Degree Graduation Rate (With 6-years) for Males and Females

Source DOE: National Center for Educational Statistics, Postsecondary Graduation Rate, 2014, Table 326.10

Note: Cohorts are from 1996 to 2007.

High School Graduation Rate

Note: We used "Persons 25-29 educational attainment high school or greater" as an indicator of having completed high school or the equivalent.

Race	2014	2015	2016
Total	90.8%	91.2%	91.7%
White	95.6	95.4	95.2
Black	91.9	92.5	91.1
Hispanic/Latino	74.7	77.1	80.6
Asian	96.6	95.8	96.8

Source Department of Education: National Center for Educational Statistics, Postsecondary Graduation Rate, 2014, Table 104.20

College and Graduate Student Debt

Black college students have about $7,300 dollars in extra debt compared to White college students and $24,000 more 4 years later.

2012	Under Graduate Borrowing	Total Owed 4 years Later
Total	$16,491	---
White	$16,046	$28,006
Black	23,421	52,726
Hispanic/Latino	15,663	29,949
Asian	11,935	26,253

Note: The US Department of Education does not collect statistics on total debt by race. Brookings has estimated the amounts.

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/research/black-white-disparity-in-student-loan-debt-more-than-triples-after-graduation/, Oct, 2016 Report(2012 Data)

Infant Mortality

The Black infant mortality rate is 11.11 per every one thousands live births.

Per 1000 Live Births	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Total	6.39	6.14	6.07	5.98	5.98
White	5.33	5.18	5.07	5.04	5.06
Black	12.40	11.46	11.45	11.19	11.11
Hispanic/Latino	5.29	5.25	5.15	5.11	5.00
Asian	4.40	4.27	4.36	4.06	4.07

Source: National Vital Statistics Report
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_09.pdf

Life Expectancy

Black men have a life expectancy of 72.3 years while Black women have a life expectancy of 78.4 years.

In Years	2013	2014
Total	78.8	78.8
White	78.9	78.8
Black	75.1	75.2
Hispanic/Latino	81.6	81.8

Source: CDC National Vital Statistics Reports https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr65/nvsr65_08.pdf

Teenage Birth Rate(15-19)

The teenage birth is measured per 1000 live births. Black teenagers age 15-19 had a birth rate of about 32 per 1000 which is almost of half of the 2006 rate. The drop was -73% over the 10 year period.

Per 1000 Live Births	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Total	41.1	41.5	40.2	37.9	34.2	31.3	29.4	26.5	24.2	22.3
White	26.7	27.2	26.7	25.7	23.5	21.7	20.5	18.6	17.3	16.0
Black	61.9	62.0	60.4	56.8	51.5	47.3	43.9	39.0	34.9	31.8
Hispanic/Latino	77.4	75.3	70.3	63.6	55.7	49.6	46.3	41.7	38.0	34.9
Asian	15.3	14.8	13.8	12.6	10.9	10.2	9.7	8.7	7.7	6.9

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, NCHS Data Brief No. 264, November 2016 and https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db259.pdf

Unmarried Birthrate

Seventy-One(71) percent of all Black children are born to unmarried women.

Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women

Percent of Live Births	2015
Total	40.3%
White	40.4
Non-Hispanic White	29.2
Black	70.1
Non-Hispanic Black	70.6
Hispanic/Latino	53.0
Asian	16.4

Birth Rates for Unmarried Women

Per 1000 Live Births	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Total	47.2	50.3	51.8	51.8	49.9	47.5	46.0	45.3	44.3	43.9
White	30.4	32.4	33.8	34.3	33.6	32.9	32.3	32.1	31.7	31.8
Black	67.2	70.7	71.4	71.0	68.7	65.3	63.7	62.6	61.7	61.5
Hispanic/Latino	96.2	101.5	102.1	97.3	89.4	80.6	75.1	72.6	69.9	68.5
Asian/Pac. Isl.	22.8	23.4	23.9	23.9	23.6	22.3	22.4	22.9	21.8	21.7

Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 64, No. 12, December 23, 2015

Health Insurance Coverage

Close to 90% of all people have health insurance including 88% of Black people. Health insurance is either private or government funded.

	Pop.2014	Insured	%	Uninsured	%	Pop.2015	Insured	%	Uninsured	%
Total	316,168	283,200	89.6%	32,968	10.4%	318,868	289,903	90.9%	28,966	9.1%
White	195,352	180,528	92.4%	14,824	7.6%	195,646	182,546	93.3%	13,100	6.7%
Black	41,226	36,380	88.3%	4,847	11.8%	41,703	37,076	88.9%	4,627	11.1%
Hisp/Lat	55,614	44,556	80.1%	11,059	19.9%	56,873	47,637	83.8%	9,235	16.2%
Asian	17,796	16,137	90.7%	1,659	9.3%	18,249	16,889	92.6%	1,360	7.4%

Source: US Census, Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2015

Crime

Arrest data for key crime categories. Some categories were combined to save space.

Arrests	Total	White	%	Black	%	Hispanic	%	Asian	%
Total	8,248,709	5,753,212	69.7%	2,197,140	26.6%	1,204,862	18.4%	101,064	1.2%
Murder/Manslaughter	8,508	3,908	45.9%	4,347	51.1%	1,370	20.8%	126	1.5%
Rape	17,370	11,809	68.0%	4,907	28.2%	3,516	26.8%	271	1.6%
Assault	287,566	184,024	64.0%	92,237	32.1%	59,883	24.6%	4,631	1.6%
RBLT	1,192,211	807,016	89.6%	350,180	10.4%	158,870	16.7%	14,472	1.2%
Violent Crime Total	386,467	232,180	60.1%	140,543	36.4%	77,557	23.9%	5,696	1.5%
Property Crime Total	1,125,950	779,529	69.2%	312,647	27.8%	146,980	16.4%	13,892	1.2%
Drug Related	1,136,950	803,809	80.1%	307,140	19.9%	186,841	20.3%	12,436	1.1%
DUI+Alcohol	1,340,158	1,081,956	80.7%	181,008	13.5%	236,054	21.6%	22,207	1.7%
Other	2,455,238	1,683,297	68.6%	688,146	28.0%	316,689	16.6%	25,197	1.0%

RBLT is Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Theft and Motor Vehicle Theft. Drug related is the same as Drug Abuse Violations. DUI plus Alcohol is Driving while under the influence, Liquor Laws and Drunkenness.

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Report, 2015, Arrest by Race and Ethnicity

Incarceration

Black 2014 Jail Population 263,800

Black 2015 Sentenced Prisoners State and Federal 523,000

Black Incarceration Rate (>18 or older) per 100,000 1745

		Male					Female
Year	Total	Total Male	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Total Female	White	Black	Hispanic	Other
2011	1,537,415	1,433,741	465,100	555,300	331,500	---	103,674	51,100	26,000	18,400	---
2012	1,511,480	1,410,191	451,252	527,768	315,234	115,937	101,289	49,352	23,386	16,968	11,584
2013	1,516,879	1,412,745	454,100	526,000	314,600	118,100	104,134	51,500	23,100	17,600	11,900
2014	1,508,636	1,402,404	453,500	516,900	308,700	123,300	106,232	53,100	22,600	17,800	12,800
2015	1,476,847	1,371,879	446,700	501,300	301,500	122,400	104,968	52,700	21,700	17,900	12,700

		Male per 100,000					Female per 100,000
Year	Total	Total Male	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Total Female	White	Black	Hispanic	Other
2011	492	932	478	3,023	1,238	---	65	51	129	71	---
2012	480	909	463	2841	1158	972	63	49	115	64	90
2013	478	904	466	2791	1130	998	65	51	113	65	93
2014	471	890	465	2724	1091	968	65	53	109	64	93
2015	458	863	457	2613	1043	929	64	52	103	63	90

Source Bureau of Justice Statistics

Happiness

Harris Poll Happiness Index by Race

Race	2008	2009	2010	2011	2013
White	35	35	32	32	34
Black	35	41	40	44	36
Hispanic	32	36	39	35	28

Source: Harris Poll Happiness Index, June 2013
http://www.theharrispoll.com/health-and-life/Are_You_Happy__It_May_Depend_on_Age__Race_Ethnicity_and_Other_Factors.html

Social Mobility

Social mobility as measured by generational income levels has been dropping. We want to look at some data published in 2014 by Bhash Mazumder of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. He compiled data by race on inter-generational incomes.

He found that White men in the lowest one-fifth (quintile) of income had a 26% change of remaining in the lowest fifth and a 10% chance of moving to the highest fifth(top quintile). Black men from the lowest fifth of income and a 50% chance of remaining in the lowest group and only a 4% chance of making it to the top fifth.

Intergenerational Income Transition for Black men.

Note: Data is from 1978-86 for parents and 2003-2007 for children. Data analysis was published in 2014.

Source: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/economic-perspectives/2014/1q2014-part1-mazumder-pdf.pdf

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2014/02/27/obamas-post-presidency-tackling-the-social-mobility-challenge-for-black-men/

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