This is more of a note to my self. I was looking for a data series on consumer confidence but instead I found a conference board index for employment. However the trouble I have is that the of the eight indicators, only one is actual conference board original data, six come from the government and one a small business research foundation.
If all the variables are significant then a free, public index without the conference board data would be almost as good. One could guess the proper weights from regressing consumer spending on unemployment indicators. So, just where is the conference board value add. Shoot, I know jobs are hard to get. I don't need a survey.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
1) Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
2) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
3) Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
4) Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
5) Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
6) Job Openings (BLS)
7) Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
8) Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
June unemployment report is a cause for concern
June unemployment report is a cause for concern
The report for June is bad news for US employment in several areas. We will cover the highlights.
Private employers added on 83,000 jobs. Total non farm payrolls drops by 125,000 workers as 225,000 census workers were let go. Also both manufacturing hour declined which signal slack demand and inventory fill-ups were completed.
Finally the average hourly wage dropped by 2 cents to $22.53.
The construction industry employment dropped by 22,000 jobs.
The general unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% because 652,000 people gave up looking for work and dropped out of the civilian labor force. The number of discouraged workers was 1.2 million up from 414,000 a year ago. Discouraged worked are persons who are not looking for work because they believe there are no jobs available for them.
The general unemployment rate (U-3) dropped to 9.5% because of a reduced labor force
The unemployment rate for Blacks stayed at 15.4% and 12.4% for Hispanics. The estimate U-6 for black hovered around 22% with drops in black unemployment and general jobs seekers.
On average 125,000 to 150,000 new jobs are needed to keep pace with population growth and maintain a stable unemployment rate.
The report for June is bad news for US employment in several areas. We will cover the highlights.
Private employers added on 83,000 jobs. Total non farm payrolls drops by 125,000 workers as 225,000 census workers were let go. Also both manufacturing hour declined which signal slack demand and inventory fill-ups were completed.
Finally the average hourly wage dropped by 2 cents to $22.53.
The construction industry employment dropped by 22,000 jobs.
The general unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% because 652,000 people gave up looking for work and dropped out of the civilian labor force. The number of discouraged workers was 1.2 million up from 414,000 a year ago. Discouraged worked are persons who are not looking for work because they believe there are no jobs available for them.
The general unemployment rate (U-3) dropped to 9.5% because of a reduced labor force
The unemployment rate for Blacks stayed at 15.4% and 12.4% for Hispanics. The estimate U-6 for black hovered around 22% with drops in black unemployment and general jobs seekers.
On average 125,000 to 150,000 new jobs are needed to keep pace with population growth and maintain a stable unemployment rate.
NYTimes: Memphis -- Black majority city slides down
All, here is a compelling story on Memphis and it's economic slide from the NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/31/business/economy/31memphis.html
The story details how hard Memphis has been hit by the recession especially the Black middle class. The article also discusses some of the lending practices by banks that led to the real estate collapse.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/31/business/economy/31memphis.html
The story details how hard Memphis has been hit by the recession especially the Black middle class. The article also discusses some of the lending practices by banks that led to the real estate collapse.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Not working again
So, I am not working again which leaves more time for Blog writing and research. It is tough without the discipline of a daily job to guide your routine. I enjoy working and get some intrinsic satisfaction from working and being measurably productive. So during this second bout of unemployment, I am going to be much more organized and productive.
EBE
EBE
The popsicle: Consumer Marketing Overload
Big company marketing folks are out of control
Where the heck is my popsicle ??
In the push to make more money, corporations over doing everything. They are trying to get consumers to spend more, consume more, up size more. This constant pressure to sell up; sell more; add more value to products is getting really annoying. It is ruining some basic products I use to like.
Here is what happened. I was at a park and I wanted a popsicle. A plain red Popsicle. or lemon. But the vendor did not have it. They had creamsicle cherry swirl, chocolate cover vanilla indulgance, super bubble gum candy sicle and klondike bars. No plain popsicle anything. He had nothing without milk or chocolate in it. Dag. Can't even get a plain Popsicle.
I see the same behavior at KFC: you want the value meal, right ?? Starbucks: "With this receipt, you can get $2 dollars off a tall beverage, the same day." And shoe retailers: "BOGO sale going on now !!!"
Everyone is trying to sell more even if it is not needed. Of course there is a lot going on with that missing popsicle. The vendors, distributors and manufacturers all make more profit from selling high end products. The vendor can only stock a certain amount of product. They have fixed costs to cover. Gas for the van and refrigeration for the popsicles, his labor all have to be covered. So why spend it on a low margin products. Distributor encourage volume buying. They try to squeeze out competitors products and provide incentives for their own higher margin products. Sames as manufacturers. They try to cover every niche and encourage distributors to carry the "full line" of products.
Of course, when I skipped the Popsicle I was not thinking all of that stuff. I got a Italian ice instead.
Corporate addiction to, rather US addiction to the quick fix like MBA marketing killed my popsicle. Hopefully flat and declining sales spur the vendors to offer a wider choice.
v2
Where the heck is my popsicle ??
In the push to make more money, corporations over doing everything. They are trying to get consumers to spend more, consume more, up size more. This constant pressure to sell up; sell more; add more value to products is getting really annoying. It is ruining some basic products I use to like.
Here is what happened. I was at a park and I wanted a popsicle. A plain red Popsicle. or lemon. But the vendor did not have it. They had creamsicle cherry swirl, chocolate cover vanilla indulgance, super bubble gum candy sicle and klondike bars. No plain popsicle anything. He had nothing without milk or chocolate in it. Dag. Can't even get a plain Popsicle.
I see the same behavior at KFC: you want the value meal, right ?? Starbucks: "With this receipt, you can get $2 dollars off a tall beverage, the same day." And shoe retailers: "BOGO sale going on now !!!"
Everyone is trying to sell more even if it is not needed. Of course there is a lot going on with that missing popsicle. The vendors, distributors and manufacturers all make more profit from selling high end products. The vendor can only stock a certain amount of product. They have fixed costs to cover. Gas for the van and refrigeration for the popsicles, his labor all have to be covered. So why spend it on a low margin products. Distributor encourage volume buying. They try to squeeze out competitors products and provide incentives for their own higher margin products. Sames as manufacturers. They try to cover every niche and encourage distributors to carry the "full line" of products.
Of course, when I skipped the Popsicle I was not thinking all of that stuff. I got a Italian ice instead.
Corporate addiction to, rather US addiction to the quick fix like MBA marketing killed my popsicle. Hopefully flat and declining sales spur the vendors to offer a wider choice.
v2
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Downward trends stops cold
We could be cursed with high unemployment for years to come
Since December 1st, 2009, weekly unemployment claims have average about 460,000. A figure is is stubbornly high for a growing economy. You have to ask if we have reached a new bottom on unemployment and things won't get much better.
You can clearly see the flat trend from the past six months in this historical graph of claims since 1999
Since December 1st, 2009, weekly unemployment claims have average about 460,000. A figure is is stubbornly high for a growing economy. You have to ask if we have reached a new bottom on unemployment and things won't get much better.
You can clearly see the flat trend from the past six months in this historical graph of claims since 1999
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Dismal unemployment report; no new private sector jobs
The department of labor, bureau of labor statistics released the May unemployment situation report on Friday, June 4,2010. The report shows no significant change in private sector employment. The private sector added only 41,000. The non farm payrolls increased by 431,000 jobs but 411,000 were temporary census jobs.
There was a small increase in manufacturing jobs of 29,000 and temporary help (+31,000), but construction decline by 35,000.
Economists, policy makers and government officials are worried that the recovery related hiring is slowing down. Some have speculated that the reducing hiring is a structural change as employers fore go hiring and squeeze workers for additional hours and productivity.
The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% nationally.
The unemployment rate for Blacks (Black U-3) dropped to 15.5%. But the under employment rate has been above 23% until recently. The teenage unemployment rate remain about 40 percent (38%).
There was a small increase in manufacturing jobs of 29,000 and temporary help (+31,000), but construction decline by 35,000.
Economists, policy makers and government officials are worried that the recovery related hiring is slowing down. Some have speculated that the reducing hiring is a structural change as employers fore go hiring and squeeze workers for additional hours and productivity.
The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% nationally.
The unemployment rate for Blacks (Black U-3) dropped to 15.5%. But the under employment rate has been above 23% until recently. The teenage unemployment rate remain about 40 percent (38%).
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise
The number of workers filing unemployment insurance claims rose by 25,000 from 446,000 last week to 471,000 this week. The rise was unexpected. Economists and policy makers were concerned that the recovery may be slowing the creation of jobs. Jobs are part of the dynamic at the heart of the US economy. Slow job growth leads to slow consumer spending, and then slow economic growth which finally leads back to slow job growth.
The chart shows unemployment claims stuck in a flat trend at about 450K since the beginning of the year. Many people believe that UI claims must be below 400K to reduce the unemployment rate.
There was no clear reason for the change. The economy has been adding job's for the past four months. The change may be due to random fluctuation.
Continuing claims dropped by 40,000 to 4.6 million.
This second chart of the longer term trends show the baseline case of about 300K during periods of economic growth and 400K or below during recovery. Our current UI situation is about 450K.
The chart shows unemployment claims stuck in a flat trend at about 450K since the beginning of the year. Many people believe that UI claims must be below 400K to reduce the unemployment rate.
There was no clear reason for the change. The economy has been adding job's for the past four months. The change may be due to random fluctuation.
Continuing claims dropped by 40,000 to 4.6 million.
This second chart of the longer term trends show the baseline case of about 300K during periods of economic growth and 400K or below during recovery. Our current UI situation is about 450K.
How to write Blog Stuff
I think I have figured out how to do this blog. It took about three months, but writing is a really tough activity. It has to be done early in the morning before noon. And as old person, I completely lose the mental edge in the afternoon and become a useless ball of clay. So I just have to get up earlier and write.
End of story.
Chris
End of story.
Chris
Sunday, May 2, 2010
New Roc City in New Rochelle: An Update
Well, I finally got to New Roc City in downtown New Rochelle. New Roc City (NRC) was design as an entertainment mall, with movie theaters, ice rinks, go-kart racing, rides, bowling and amusements. New Roc City was opened in Oct. 1st, 1999 with a huge amount of press coverage. NRC is located in downtown New Rochelle, NY and was developed by Louis Cappelli, president of Cappelli Enterprises, the largest real estate developer in Westchester County, NY. New Roc City was supposed to spur the development of New Rochelle, one of the poorest communities in the richest county in New York State.
New Roc City was developed as an entertainment complex, but plans have also included switching to big box retailing. Target had planned to open on the second floor, replacing the skating rink in 2008. The new opening date has note been set.
New Roc City was developed as an entertainment complex. It has had several issues with public safety and earned a reputation as being unsafe. On April 8th, 2007, hundreds of youths from NYC and New Rochelle fought with police. Another incident happened in New Rochelle on October 16th, 2007. NRC failed to attract the suburban kids in large numbers or to extract sufficient extra income to stay profitable. Many amusement parks operate on razor thin margins or losses and earn profits from food, drinks and merchandise.
NRC, now, is interesting place. The movie theater, go-karts, Buffalo Wild Wings and Modell's sports store were open. The bowling alley was packed. But the ice rink was closed, the entire second floor was closed off, the fitness club has moved out, and the amusement floor had a power failure. Sections of the complex are closed, dark or roped off. You can peer into the empty ice rink from the second floor. It was a real mixed bag.
My gut feel was that the place had a coney island, run-down amusement park feel, like it was intended for higher end spenders but could not attract them, so it settled for what it got. It's like an amusement park that is past it's prime.
New Roc City is pretty beat up but they did the right thing trying to develop it. They built the Trump Plaza and Avalon condominiums and New Roc City itself. They built a new transit hub. They redeveloped a good section of New Rochelle. They also generated a lot of good jobs.
The lesson: Yeah we gotta have a lesson. New Roc City is a great learning lesson in development. There are a couple of specific lessons: Security, Size, Customer Knowledge
First, economic development requires planning and security. When you make a project on the scale of NRC you must be ready to handle large crowds of Black and Hispanic kids without violence. You need smarter and better security guards that will stop any incident from getting out of hand. It would be better to close the complex to new customers rather than damage the reputation.
Second, NRC was probably too big. Perhaps it should have started smaller with a movie theater, bowling and ice rink, then see which ones worked and which ones did not make money, then expand in that direction. It takes years, maybe a generation, to re-develop and area at the grass roots level.
Third, know your customer. A smaller New Roc City might have worked if it targeted suburban kids who want a real, New York city feel without the hassle of traveling to the east village. They should have promoted resturantes, live music, clubs, bars and perhaps even adults entertainment in a controlled and contained fashion (similar to Europe). Plus new and different retailed (non-mall) like consignment, design, retro, vintage or custom. You cannot beat the mall. On persons sleaze is another persons spice.
Economic, class and racial trends in the US make projects like New Roc City very difficult economically. The future of New Roc City is uncertain.
New Roc City was developed as an entertainment complex, but plans have also included switching to big box retailing. Target had planned to open on the second floor, replacing the skating rink in 2008. The new opening date has note been set.
New Roc City was developed as an entertainment complex. It has had several issues with public safety and earned a reputation as being unsafe. On April 8th, 2007, hundreds of youths from NYC and New Rochelle fought with police. Another incident happened in New Rochelle on October 16th, 2007. NRC failed to attract the suburban kids in large numbers or to extract sufficient extra income to stay profitable. Many amusement parks operate on razor thin margins or losses and earn profits from food, drinks and merchandise.
NRC, now, is interesting place. The movie theater, go-karts, Buffalo Wild Wings and Modell's sports store were open. The bowling alley was packed. But the ice rink was closed, the entire second floor was closed off, the fitness club has moved out, and the amusement floor had a power failure. Sections of the complex are closed, dark or roped off. You can peer into the empty ice rink from the second floor. It was a real mixed bag.
My gut feel was that the place had a coney island, run-down amusement park feel, like it was intended for higher end spenders but could not attract them, so it settled for what it got. It's like an amusement park that is past it's prime.
New Roc City is pretty beat up but they did the right thing trying to develop it. They built the Trump Plaza and Avalon condominiums and New Roc City itself. They built a new transit hub. They redeveloped a good section of New Rochelle. They also generated a lot of good jobs.
The lesson: Yeah we gotta have a lesson. New Roc City is a great learning lesson in development. There are a couple of specific lessons: Security, Size, Customer Knowledge
First, economic development requires planning and security. When you make a project on the scale of NRC you must be ready to handle large crowds of Black and Hispanic kids without violence. You need smarter and better security guards that will stop any incident from getting out of hand. It would be better to close the complex to new customers rather than damage the reputation.
Second, NRC was probably too big. Perhaps it should have started smaller with a movie theater, bowling and ice rink, then see which ones worked and which ones did not make money, then expand in that direction. It takes years, maybe a generation, to re-develop and area at the grass roots level.
Third, know your customer. A smaller New Roc City might have worked if it targeted suburban kids who want a real, New York city feel without the hassle of traveling to the east village. They should have promoted resturantes, live music, clubs, bars and perhaps even adults entertainment in a controlled and contained fashion (similar to Europe). Plus new and different retailed (non-mall) like consignment, design, retro, vintage or custom. You cannot beat the mall. On persons sleaze is another persons spice.
Economic, class and racial trends in the US make projects like New Roc City very difficult economically. The future of New Roc City is uncertain.
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