Saturday, April 7, 2012
What was the Black Economic Research Center ?
The Black Economic Research Center was a think tank found by economist Robert S. Browne in 1969. The goal of the center was to improve the economic condition of US Blacks. The centers principle publication was "The review of Black Political Economy". The center ceased operation in 1980. The archives are located at the New York Public Libraries's Schomberg branch.
Apologies for the March Unemployment Report: Phoned it in !!!
I really got sloppy on the editing. You can't "phone it in" in this business.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Companies know my birthday ?
I am not one of those over-the-top, corporate conspiracy types (except for the illuminati, of course). However when I got a "Birthday" card ad from an auto insurance company with a green lizard I was very suspicious. I got another add talking about the town where I live and the "benefits" I got from living here.
It got me thinking about how much corporations know about me. And by extension the government. I believe they know quite a lot: They know I am a Male, 40-50, who lives in Northern New Jersey. They know approximately how much I earn and approximately what I buy.
Unfortunately for them. I don't buy enough brand name stuff to really be interesting. I don't really shop at Macy's that often, I don't buy Tide from Proctor and Gamble", and I don't use my credit card that regular. In other words, I am a very poor target for marketing.
I am also a poor target for the government. Other than a little bit of travel for work, I lead a very uninteresting life. So I don't think I am actively monitored.
However, I do believe in some common sense things about government spying. I believe the government has the ability to monitor all domestic and international electronic communication. They also have the ability to compile all the information in one place quickly, if they have not done so already. The electronic eves dropping is carried out by the National Security Administration. The NSA has long been accused of domestic spying and bypassing FISA (federal secret search warrant and wire-tap court).
Here is a link to a related story on the new NSA data center in Bluffdale, UT. Here.
So there is a sort of unwritten privacy bargain, between the public, the NSA and local law enforcement. Domestic crime unrelated to terrorism is off limits to the NSA. But if they hear something they would turn it over to the FBI.
So, here is the catch, my private is protected by my boring life not by any specific law. I might have a file but I don't think anyone would bother to read it.
Version 2
It got me thinking about how much corporations know about me. And by extension the government. I believe they know quite a lot: They know I am a Male, 40-50, who lives in Northern New Jersey. They know approximately how much I earn and approximately what I buy.
Unfortunately for them. I don't buy enough brand name stuff to really be interesting. I don't really shop at Macy's that often, I don't buy Tide from Proctor and Gamble", and I don't use my credit card that regular. In other words, I am a very poor target for marketing.
I am also a poor target for the government. Other than a little bit of travel for work, I lead a very uninteresting life. So I don't think I am actively monitored.
However, I do believe in some common sense things about government spying. I believe the government has the ability to monitor all domestic and international electronic communication. They also have the ability to compile all the information in one place quickly, if they have not done so already. The electronic eves dropping is carried out by the National Security Administration. The NSA has long been accused of domestic spying and bypassing FISA (federal secret search warrant and wire-tap court).
Here is a link to a related story on the new NSA data center in Bluffdale, UT. Here.
So there is a sort of unwritten privacy bargain, between the public, the NSA and local law enforcement. Domestic crime unrelated to terrorism is off limits to the NSA. But if they hear something they would turn it over to the FBI.
So, here is the catch, my private is protected by my boring life not by any specific law. I might have a file but I don't think anyone would bother to read it.
Version 2
Stop giving freebies !!! Your opinion is worth money.
No free marketing research.
Head's up. Do not give away your opinion for free. Companies have lots of smart people who sit around all day and try to get the consumer to buy stuff they don't need. One way to do that is called marketing research where they try to "understand" their customers. I used to get paid about $50 bucks to fill out surveys or sit in a room for a focus group.
Now they want a free pop-up survey or they offer some coupons. All those free giveaways or gift cards or pop-up surveys are a scam to get free marketing research. Right when you impression is the strongest. Do not give it away for free.
Refuse to answer any questions. Do not give your zip code or any personal information. Ask if they will pay you to fill out the survey or give you free merchandise.
Head's up. Do not give away your opinion for free. Companies have lots of smart people who sit around all day and try to get the consumer to buy stuff they don't need. One way to do that is called marketing research where they try to "understand" their customers. I used to get paid about $50 bucks to fill out surveys or sit in a room for a focus group.
Now they want a free pop-up survey or they offer some coupons. All those free giveaways or gift cards or pop-up surveys are a scam to get free marketing research. Right when you impression is the strongest. Do not give it away for free.
Refuse to answer any questions. Do not give your zip code or any personal information. Ask if they will pay you to fill out the survey or give you free merchandise.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
March unemployment review
227,000 new jobs; Black unemployment at 14.1%; National rate steady at 8.3%
The biggest news in the monthly labor report was the increase in the labor force participation rate. The rate jumped up 0.2% as an additional 476,000 joined the labor force since February. There were 227,000 more jobs but the national rate stayed at 8.3% because of the increased labor pool.
Private sector hiring added 233,00 to the worker rolls and government employment dropped only 6,000 spots. Job growth was spread across important sectors of the economy like durable goods manufacturing, temp help, health care, and food and drinking establishments. The losers were construction., non durable goods, and retail trade. Federal government employment was down by -7K accounting for all of the decrease in public jobs.
The black rate bounced up to 14.1% because of the number of black workers looking for jobs increased by 111,000. In other words more black people were also returning to the labor market.
The white unemployment rate moved down 0.1% to 7.3% and the Hispanic rate was up 0.2% to 10.7%. The black teenage unemployment was reported at 35%.
The decrease in the employment continued to help President Obama. The Dow-Jones stock market index was above 13,200 while the Nasdaq index was over 3,000. Weekly unemployment claims were reported at 359,000.
The long-term unemployed stuck to the 5.4 million people which represents 43% of the unemployed. The figure for the long-term unemployed has not moved during the recession meaning a large number of people no longer “fit” in the tight job market. Many consider the long-term unemployed as representing the structurally unemployed. The economy has changed and these workers do not have a place anymore.
Non-Farm Payrolls
If we look at the establishment data we see that hiring was strong across some areas of the economy: 227,000 jobs added. Now let’s look at the details.
There were gains in business services(+82,000), health care(+49,000), leisure and hospitality(+44,000) and manufacturing(+31K). Retail employment at department stores dropped -25,000 and construction dropped by -13K.
Non-farm payrolls were revised in December upward by +20K (from 203,000 to 223,000) and in January by +41,000(from 243K to 284K).
Average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours and wages added 3 cents in February a $0.04 raise in January.
ADP and Monster also reported results. ADP reported an increase in payrolls of 216,000 positions.
Monster Employment Index moved up to 143 in February from 133 in January. Hiring was up 11% compared to same month last year but down 2% for the month.
v1
The biggest news in the monthly labor report was the increase in the labor force participation rate. The rate jumped up 0.2% as an additional 476,000 joined the labor force since February. There were 227,000 more jobs but the national rate stayed at 8.3% because of the increased labor pool.
Private sector hiring added 233,00 to the worker rolls and government employment dropped only 6,000 spots. Job growth was spread across important sectors of the economy like durable goods manufacturing, temp help, health care, and food and drinking establishments. The losers were construction., non durable goods, and retail trade. Federal government employment was down by -7K accounting for all of the decrease in public jobs.
The black rate bounced up to 14.1% because of the number of black workers looking for jobs increased by 111,000. In other words more black people were also returning to the labor market.
The white unemployment rate moved down 0.1% to 7.3% and the Hispanic rate was up 0.2% to 10.7%. The black teenage unemployment was reported at 35%.
The decrease in the employment continued to help President Obama. The Dow-Jones stock market index was above 13,200 while the Nasdaq index was over 3,000. Weekly unemployment claims were reported at 359,000.
The long-term unemployed stuck to the 5.4 million people which represents 43% of the unemployed. The figure for the long-term unemployed has not moved during the recession meaning a large number of people no longer “fit” in the tight job market. Many consider the long-term unemployed as representing the structurally unemployed. The economy has changed and these workers do not have a place anymore.
Non-Farm Payrolls
If we look at the establishment data we see that hiring was strong across some areas of the economy: 227,000 jobs added. Now let’s look at the details.
There were gains in business services(+82,000), health care(+49,000), leisure and hospitality(+44,000) and manufacturing(+31K). Retail employment at department stores dropped -25,000 and construction dropped by -13K.
Non-farm payrolls were revised in December upward by +20K (from 203,000 to 223,000) and in January by +41,000(from 243K to 284K).
Average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours and wages added 3 cents in February a $0.04 raise in January.
ADP and Monster also reported results. ADP reported an increase in payrolls of 216,000 positions.
Monster Employment Index moved up to 143 in February from 133 in January. Hiring was up 11% compared to same month last year but down 2% for the month.
v1
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Technical Topics Blog
Well, we have launched another Blog. This one is for technical topic we have encountered during the economic research. Topics include mathematical formulas, algorthims and technical concepts.
The Blog is called Evil Black Economist technical topics. Here is the link.
The Blog is called Evil Black Economist technical topics. Here is the link.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Watch out for companies dropping health coverage
The Affordable Care Act really starts working in 2014. Under the law, major provision of which go into effect, in 2014, employers can drop coverage for employees and pay a penalty (tax). The tax is used by the government to provide health insurance on private exchanges. The government currently subsidizes employer plans by letting companies deduct healthcare expenses.
However, many employers are still weighing the cost of paying for employees health coverage or paying the tax penalty. The tax penalty is between $2000 to $3000 dollars per employee. Large companies would not be affected but smaller companies with expensive health plans may consider dropping coverage.
Large companies typically offer premium health coverage to attract higher quality employees. They must also worry about their reputations as good places to work. However, premium health plans offered to executive will be taxes under the ACA.
Minimum sized and small companies offer health coverage for a variety of reasons: to attract and retain employees, reasons on loyalty, fairness and equality, and social norms and low costs. Now the costs are overwhelming all the other reasons.
The costs of healthcare are forcing everyone's hands a cost skyrockets. When employers drop coverage, workers do not look for a private solution, they ask government for protection. It makes people think that the best solution one, universal government program.
I think many Republicans an
However, many employers are still weighing the cost of paying for employees health coverage or paying the tax penalty. The tax penalty is between $2000 to $3000 dollars per employee. Large companies would not be affected but smaller companies with expensive health plans may consider dropping coverage.
Large companies typically offer premium health coverage to attract higher quality employees. They must also worry about their reputations as good places to work. However, premium health plans offered to executive will be taxes under the ACA.
Minimum sized and small companies offer health coverage for a variety of reasons: to attract and retain employees, reasons on loyalty, fairness and equality, and social norms and low costs. Now the costs are overwhelming all the other reasons.
The costs of healthcare are forcing everyone's hands a cost skyrockets. When employers drop coverage, workers do not look for a private solution, they ask government for protection. It makes people think that the best solution one, universal government program.
I think many Republicans an
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 week moving average.
Economists love the weekly initial unemployment claims figure. The number one reason: it is an an actual, real number representing real people which is gathered from state employment offices. It is not an estimate, nor a forecast or a guess. It is the real number of people who applied for the first time unemployment benefits. Second, it is weekly. Weekly is a very frequent release in the world of economics. Compare that to the GDP which comes out once a quarter then get's revised. Or the national unemployment rate which is produced monthly. CPI-U, also monthly. And all three are estimates based on samples. Look at how the reported Black unemployment rate has been jumping around the past three months. A number should not depend on who was answering the telephone that day.
Employment is a lagging indicator but weekly initial unemployment claims responds quickly to economic changes. A lot of forecasting models use weekly unemployment claims number. And if you ever want to know what the coming unemployment rate for next month then just look at the week claims for the previous three months.
Note: the rate is currently close to or below 350,000 claims per month. Below 350K, economists believe the economy adds enough jobs to reduce the national unemployment rate.
v2
Economists love the weekly initial unemployment claims figure. The number one reason: it is an an actual, real number representing real people which is gathered from state employment offices. It is not an estimate, nor a forecast or a guess. It is the real number of people who applied for the first time unemployment benefits. Second, it is weekly. Weekly is a very frequent release in the world of economics. Compare that to the GDP which comes out once a quarter then get's revised. Or the national unemployment rate which is produced monthly. CPI-U, also monthly. And all three are estimates based on samples. Look at how the reported Black unemployment rate has been jumping around the past three months. A number should not depend on who was answering the telephone that day.
Employment is a lagging indicator but weekly initial unemployment claims responds quickly to economic changes. A lot of forecasting models use weekly unemployment claims number. And if you ever want to know what the coming unemployment rate for next month then just look at the week claims for the previous three months.
Note: the rate is currently close to or below 350,000 claims per month. Below 350K, economists believe the economy adds enough jobs to reduce the national unemployment rate.
v2
Monday, March 12, 2012
The Creamy Layer
If you read our other blogs, you know we have been looking closely at Affirmative Action in India. In India, there is a rigid system of quotas for Scheduled Class(SC), Scheduled Tribes(ST) and Other Backward Classes(OBC) for job openings. Traditionally disadvantaged groups compete against each other for set aside jobs in a fixed quota and then compete against the total population for non Affirmative Account positions. Advantaged groups cannot compete in the set-aside area.
For example, here is internet post for positions at the Food Corporation of India. FCI is a government run corporation that distributes farm commodities to poor Indians. FCI is responsbile for food secuirty in a country that used to have famine on a regular basis.
You can from the first recruitment advertisement that for Management Trainees: 23 positions are set aside for Scheduled Class and 12 for Scheduled Tribes. Example #1. Example #2 and Example #3.
India's strong commitment to Affirmative Action has helped many poor people who were stuck in poverty because of their caste or tribe. Many lower caste members have benefit greatly from affirmative action. They and their children have moved into the middle class.
The issue is their children who are now educated and middle class. Many of the children of protected classes have become highly placed government officials, movie stars, sports figures or military officers. They are called "the creamy layer". The creamy layer used to apply only to OBC (Other Backward Classes) but has come to mean any "rich" child of affirmative action.
When applying under an affirmative action program , participants must produce a non-creamy layer certificate. As India has prospered, the country has found it must exclude young people in the creamy layer to make sure affirmative action benefits those who are truly in need.
v2
For example, here is internet post for positions at the Food Corporation of India. FCI is a government run corporation that distributes farm commodities to poor Indians. FCI is responsbile for food secuirty in a country that used to have famine on a regular basis.
You can from the first recruitment advertisement that for Management Trainees: 23 positions are set aside for Scheduled Class and 12 for Scheduled Tribes. Example #1. Example #2 and Example #3.
India's strong commitment to Affirmative Action has helped many poor people who were stuck in poverty because of their caste or tribe. Many lower caste members have benefit greatly from affirmative action. They and their children have moved into the middle class.
The issue is their children who are now educated and middle class. Many of the children of protected classes have become highly placed government officials, movie stars, sports figures or military officers. They are called "the creamy layer". The creamy layer used to apply only to OBC (Other Backward Classes) but has come to mean any "rich" child of affirmative action.
When applying under an affirmative action program , participants must produce a non-creamy layer certificate. As India has prospered, the country has found it must exclude young people in the creamy layer to make sure affirmative action benefits those who are truly in need.
v2
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Judge order $128 Million payment for Discrimination in NYC Firefighter Test
Judge Nicholas Garufis ordered New York City to pay $128 million in compensation to New York City firefighter applicants who were denied position based on a discriminatory test that the city had the power to fix. The Judge also order the FDNY to hire approximately 300 Black and Latino test takers.
The lawsuit, by the Federal Government and the Black Firefighters association (the Vulcans), charged that the test had little to do with actual firefighting and instead focus on memorization, test taking and reading. White candidates with an extensive network of existing and former firefighter "coaches" consistently passed while black candidates failed.
The New York City has a black population of about 26% while the FDNY is only 3% black.
The lawsuit, by the Federal Government and the Black Firefighters association (the Vulcans), charged that the test had little to do with actual firefighting and instead focus on memorization, test taking and reading. White candidates with an extensive network of existing and former firefighter "coaches" consistently passed while black candidates failed.
The New York City has a black population of about 26% while the FDNY is only 3% black.
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