Sunday, May 20, 2012
Black Labor Force Participation Rate
We have been watching the labor force participation rate closely as it falls during the recession. The rate, which be blow the long term average, measures how many Black people have jobs and are participating in the labor force.
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Total New Jobs: 115,000; Black rate drops to 13.0%; US rate at 8.1%
BLS April Unemployment Report Review
The BLS announced the US economy created only 115,000 new jobs in April. Economists had expected at least 150,000 new jobs, however the number can vary by plus or minus 100,000 jobs. The amount of new jobs was below what was expected but in line with US GDP growth rate of 2.2%. The US national rate was reported at 8.1%.
The US national rate continues to slowly drop which is good news for President Obama's election campaign.
The Dow Jones equity index lost about 100 points on the announcement (and 400 index points for the week) based on the poor job creation news. Almost every other employment indicator was the same as the previous month.
The biggest news was a large increase in people who were not in the labor force. An additional 522,000 people dropped out of the labor force. The national labor force participation rate decreased 0.2% to 63.6% which is the lowest since December 1981. Black labor force participation was 61.3 (63.2% for Black men and 59.7% for Black women) which is also similar to the rate during the early 1980s. The black rate peaked at over 66% during the late 1990s. Both the participation rate and the “not in the labor force” rate affect the unemployment rate which dropped by 0.1%. Rate is dropping for the wrong reason: people leaving the labor force not growth in the jobs market.
The black unemployment rates is displayed below.
The black rate bounced down to 13.0% because of a drop in the size of the labor force and an increase in the number of people working. The white unemployment rate increased ten basis points to 7.4% and the Hispanic rate stayed at 10.3%. The black teenage unemployment was reported at 38%.
The "real" black underemployment rate was above 20% but declining. It has dropped by 15% in the last year.
There was no major news from the Obama or Romney campaigns on jobs or economics.
The long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) dropped slightly to 5.1 million people which represents 41% of the unemployed. The “work part-time wants full-time” number was 7.9 million. These people are considered under employed. Two million, four hundred thousand people were marginally attached to the labor pool. They want work but have not looked in over four weeks. And there were 968K discouraged workers(part of marginally attached) who are not looking because they believe there is no job for them.
Non-Farm Payrolls
Private sector hiring added 130,000 jobs (vs. 166,000 last month) and government employment dropped again by -15K (local government -12,000). Job growth was concentrated in durable goods manufacturing, business services and healthcare. The losers were construction (-2K) and transportation and warehousing(-16,600 jobs). Government employment was down by -15,000.
Let’s review some of the key areas of the economy. Durable goods manufacturing added 16,000 spots; Construction lost -2000 jobs; Business services added 62K(21K temp help) and healthcare added 18,000 new positions.
The chart below shows the breakdown by minor category. You can see that the biggest jump was in business services. Growth was broad based coming from several technical areas. Construction is still hurting. Construction is about 5% of GDP. Manufacturing continue grow.
You can see from the chart below that job growth slowed this month compared to the recent winter months where more than 200,000 jobs were created.
The US is making progress in recovering from the recession. We are still down about 5 million jobs since the start of the recession. Approximately 2.5 million jobs have been created since the end of the recession.
At the current rate of growth, we will regain the lost jobs some time in the year 2016 based on a linear forecast. However, are more realistic recovery curve would flatten as the recovery continues, so we expect the real date to be around 2018.
Non-farm payrolls were revised in February upward by +19K (from 240,000 to 259,000) and in March by +34,000(from 120K to 154K).
Average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours and wages added 1 cent in March.
ADP reported an increase in private payrolls of 119,000 positions.
Monster Employment Index moved up to 146 in April from 143 in March. Hiring was up 1% compared to same month last year.
The BLS announced the US economy created only 115,000 new jobs in April. Economists had expected at least 150,000 new jobs, however the number can vary by plus or minus 100,000 jobs. The amount of new jobs was below what was expected but in line with US GDP growth rate of 2.2%. The US national rate was reported at 8.1%.
The US national rate continues to slowly drop which is good news for President Obama's election campaign.
The Dow Jones equity index lost about 100 points on the announcement (and 400 index points for the week) based on the poor job creation news. Almost every other employment indicator was the same as the previous month.
The biggest news was a large increase in people who were not in the labor force. An additional 522,000 people dropped out of the labor force. The national labor force participation rate decreased 0.2% to 63.6% which is the lowest since December 1981. Black labor force participation was 61.3 (63.2% for Black men and 59.7% for Black women) which is also similar to the rate during the early 1980s. The black rate peaked at over 66% during the late 1990s. Both the participation rate and the “not in the labor force” rate affect the unemployment rate which dropped by 0.1%. Rate is dropping for the wrong reason: people leaving the labor force not growth in the jobs market.
The black unemployment rates is displayed below.
The black rate bounced down to 13.0% because of a drop in the size of the labor force and an increase in the number of people working. The white unemployment rate increased ten basis points to 7.4% and the Hispanic rate stayed at 10.3%. The black teenage unemployment was reported at 38%.
The "real" black underemployment rate was above 20% but declining. It has dropped by 15% in the last year.
There was no major news from the Obama or Romney campaigns on jobs or economics.
The long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) dropped slightly to 5.1 million people which represents 41% of the unemployed. The “work part-time wants full-time” number was 7.9 million. These people are considered under employed. Two million, four hundred thousand people were marginally attached to the labor pool. They want work but have not looked in over four weeks. And there were 968K discouraged workers(part of marginally attached) who are not looking because they believe there is no job for them.
Non-Farm Payrolls
Private sector hiring added 130,000 jobs (vs. 166,000 last month) and government employment dropped again by -15K (local government -12,000). Job growth was concentrated in durable goods manufacturing, business services and healthcare. The losers were construction (-2K) and transportation and warehousing(-16,600 jobs). Government employment was down by -15,000.
Let’s review some of the key areas of the economy. Durable goods manufacturing added 16,000 spots; Construction lost -2000 jobs; Business services added 62K(21K temp help) and healthcare added 18,000 new positions.
The chart below shows the breakdown by minor category. You can see that the biggest jump was in business services. Growth was broad based coming from several technical areas. Construction is still hurting. Construction is about 5% of GDP. Manufacturing continue grow.
You can see from the chart below that job growth slowed this month compared to the recent winter months where more than 200,000 jobs were created.
The US is making progress in recovering from the recession. We are still down about 5 million jobs since the start of the recession. Approximately 2.5 million jobs have been created since the end of the recession.
At the current rate of growth, we will regain the lost jobs some time in the year 2016 based on a linear forecast. However, are more realistic recovery curve would flatten as the recovery continues, so we expect the real date to be around 2018.
Non-farm payrolls were revised in February upward by +19K (from 240,000 to 259,000) and in March by +34,000(from 120K to 154K).
Average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours and wages added 1 cent in March.
ADP reported an increase in private payrolls of 119,000 positions.
Monster Employment Index moved up to 146 in April from 143 in March. Hiring was up 1% compared to same month last year.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
All Labor...
All labor that uplifts humanity has dignity and importance and should be undertaken with painstaking excellence.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
InterPublic Group sued for Racial Discrimination
A long term employee of the InterPublic Group (IPG) has filed a racial discrimination suit accusing the firm of denying her promotion because she is Black and a visible minority. Joy C. Noel filed a $50 Million dollar lawsuit alledging discrimition in promotion and then subsequent retailation which is illegal under NY State law. The legal paperwrok was filed on her behalf by the plantiff by Eric Sanders of the Sanders Firm, PC.
You can read the full petition here. And here.
When you read the details in the position, you get a real feel for the day to day stress the plaintiff was under. Really very sad.
Advertising Age (Ad Age) also has an article on the topic. Here.
And finally, according to Ad Age, John Liu, has asked the four top companies to disclose personnel information by race, gender and position. The companies are IPG, Omnicom, Publicis and WPP. The advertising industry has long had a reputation for discriminating against Blacks and Hispanics.
Three reporters: Alexandra Bruell, Kunar Patel and Rupal Parekh at Advertising Age plus the editorial staff, have done a great job convering the topic. Here is one more story. Here.
You can read the full petition here. And here.
When you read the details in the position, you get a real feel for the day to day stress the plaintiff was under. Really very sad.
Advertising Age (Ad Age) also has an article on the topic. Here.
And finally, according to Ad Age, John Liu, has asked the four top companies to disclose personnel information by race, gender and position. The companies are IPG, Omnicom, Publicis and WPP. The advertising industry has long had a reputation for discriminating against Blacks and Hispanics.
Three reporters: Alexandra Bruell, Kunar Patel and Rupal Parekh at Advertising Age plus the editorial staff, have done a great job convering the topic. Here is one more story. Here.
The Navy is the easiest place to cut
The best place to cut the military is the Navy. They are the largest service. They have huge capital expenditures. They produce relatively few jobs for the money spent. And they have relatively little impact in a land warfare world.
Nine out of ten of the worlds navies are allies of the united states. And the tenth, China, is in love with the shipping container. The would rather have world trade than Taiwan.
The Navy, is currently looking for a mission. It is close to irrelevant in the global war on terror or the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
currently there are thirteen Battle Carrier Battle Groups and about 320,000 active personnel. There are an astounding 200,000 civilian employees. An probably another 200,000 contractors (20% of 500K personnel). That's an incredible 700,000 people.
Another huge waste of money is our submarine fleet. Especially our Nuclear submarine fleet. These sub are clearly left over from another age with no strategic purpose.
We should reduce our Carrier Battle groups to either while keeping the current ones on station longer. We should reduce out sub fleet by 50%-75% to approximately twice that of next largest sub fleet. Any we should consider closing some of the non strategic bases around the globe.
Nine out of ten of the worlds navies are allies of the united states. And the tenth, China, is in love with the shipping container. The would rather have world trade than Taiwan.
The Navy, is currently looking for a mission. It is close to irrelevant in the global war on terror or the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
currently there are thirteen Battle Carrier Battle Groups and about 320,000 active personnel. There are an astounding 200,000 civilian employees. An probably another 200,000 contractors (20% of 500K personnel). That's an incredible 700,000 people.
Another huge waste of money is our submarine fleet. Especially our Nuclear submarine fleet. These sub are clearly left over from another age with no strategic purpose.
We should reduce our Carrier Battle groups to either while keeping the current ones on station longer. We should reduce out sub fleet by 50%-75% to approximately twice that of next largest sub fleet. Any we should consider closing some of the non strategic bases around the globe.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Bidding for Labor on the Internet
When I was not working, I looked at some of the freelance web site. I guess the industry has continued to growth because several small job / task level web sites have appeared. Now, there are more popping up. I spent a little time going back and checking them out. These website let users post small jobs and tasks or find freelance positions. The small task sites use the internet to take competitive bids and the lowest price worker gets the job.
Most of the small job sites feature really low bids. I mean below minimuum wage level bids. But when you answer the ad, you are operating as an "independent contractor", which not subject to minimum wage laws, so we will see how that stands up to state regulators.
There was also a recent radio feature that started me writing on the subject. You can listen to it, to get an idea of how these sites work. Here, from the On Point Radio show, which spent some time discussing some of the implications.
As a amateur economist, I can see the efficiency of offering jobs over the internet. The advantage is greatly reduced transaction costs. But it seems like most of the benefits go the the person posting the job not the worker.
Here are some sites to check out:
ODESK
ELANCE
99designs
Task Rabbit
Zaarly
and you must include Craigslist
Craigslist
Most of the small job sites feature really low bids. I mean below minimuum wage level bids. But when you answer the ad, you are operating as an "independent contractor", which not subject to minimum wage laws, so we will see how that stands up to state regulators.
There was also a recent radio feature that started me writing on the subject. You can listen to it, to get an idea of how these sites work. Here, from the On Point Radio show, which spent some time discussing some of the implications.
As a amateur economist, I can see the efficiency of offering jobs over the internet. The advantage is greatly reduced transaction costs. But it seems like most of the benefits go the the person posting the job not the worker.
Here are some sites to check out:
ODESK
ELANCE
99designs
Task Rabbit
Zaarly
and you must include Craigslist
Craigslist
Sunday, April 8, 2012
March Unemployment Report: Only 150,000 new jobs; National rate steady at 8.2%
March unemployment review
On April 6, 2012 the Labor department released it's March unemployment report. The report contained a small surprise: the US economy created only 150,000 jobs in March. Analysts had expected more than 200,000 new jobs. There is a consensus among economists that 150,000 jobs are need to stay even with population growth. The stock market indexes opened lower but then recovered to the same level by the end of the day.
It is important to note that the actual number of Non Farm Payroll jobs can vary by as much as 100,000 jobs, up or down, so the economy created between 50,000 and 250,000 jobs. We will probably see an upward revision in the following two months.
Almost every other unemployment indicator was the same or moving in a lower direction as compared to the previous month. Black unemployment, was unchanged at 14.0% reported however black employment totals increased by 74,000 workers.
The labor force participation rate was nearly unchanged at 63.8%. The national rate stayed at 8.2% the same as last month. U-6, the under employment rate dropped to 14.5 from 14.9% because of increase employment and decreases in discouraged and marginally attached workers. Discouraged workers dropped -141K and marginal workers: -256K.
There are also two other hopeful signs in the data on reasons for unemployment. The number job losers was down and both job leavers and new entrants were up as a percentage of the unemployed.
The black rate unemployment rate was 14.0%, the white rate was 7.3% and the Hispanic rate was 10.7%. The black teenage unemployment was reported at 40%.
The long-term unemployed dropped 100,000 people to 5.3 million people which represents 42.5% of the unemployed. The long-term unemployed is starting to slowly drop, a great sign for the economy.
Establishment Data / Non Farm Payroll
Private sector hiring added 121,000 jobs and government employment dropped only -1K. Hopefully we are seeing an end to government layoffs. Job growth came from manufacturing, business services, health care and eating and drinking places. Losers were retail trade -34K(department stores -21,000 jobs), construction and movies and music. Government employment was down -1K.
Non-farm payrolls were revised in January downward by -9K (from 282,000 to 275,000) and in February upward by +13,000(from 227K to 240K).
Average work week was unchanged at 33.8 hours and wages added 5 cents in March.
ADP reported an increase in payrolls of 209,000 positions. ADP uses actual payroll records and is more accurate than the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Monster Employment Index stayed at 143 in March, but was up 5% compared to last year.
On April 6, 2012 the Labor department released it's March unemployment report. The report contained a small surprise: the US economy created only 150,000 jobs in March. Analysts had expected more than 200,000 new jobs. There is a consensus among economists that 150,000 jobs are need to stay even with population growth. The stock market indexes opened lower but then recovered to the same level by the end of the day.
It is important to note that the actual number of Non Farm Payroll jobs can vary by as much as 100,000 jobs, up or down, so the economy created between 50,000 and 250,000 jobs. We will probably see an upward revision in the following two months.
Almost every other unemployment indicator was the same or moving in a lower direction as compared to the previous month. Black unemployment, was unchanged at 14.0% reported however black employment totals increased by 74,000 workers.
The labor force participation rate was nearly unchanged at 63.8%. The national rate stayed at 8.2% the same as last month. U-6, the under employment rate dropped to 14.5 from 14.9% because of increase employment and decreases in discouraged and marginally attached workers. Discouraged workers dropped -141K and marginal workers: -256K.
There are also two other hopeful signs in the data on reasons for unemployment. The number job losers was down and both job leavers and new entrants were up as a percentage of the unemployed.
The black rate unemployment rate was 14.0%, the white rate was 7.3% and the Hispanic rate was 10.7%. The black teenage unemployment was reported at 40%.
The long-term unemployed dropped 100,000 people to 5.3 million people which represents 42.5% of the unemployed. The long-term unemployed is starting to slowly drop, a great sign for the economy.
Establishment Data / Non Farm Payroll
Private sector hiring added 121,000 jobs and government employment dropped only -1K. Hopefully we are seeing an end to government layoffs. Job growth came from manufacturing, business services, health care and eating and drinking places. Losers were retail trade -34K(department stores -21,000 jobs), construction and movies and music. Government employment was down -1K.
Non-farm payrolls were revised in January downward by -9K (from 282,000 to 275,000) and in February upward by +13,000(from 227K to 240K).
Average work week was unchanged at 33.8 hours and wages added 5 cents in March.
ADP reported an increase in payrolls of 209,000 positions. ADP uses actual payroll records and is more accurate than the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Monster Employment Index stayed at 143 in March, but was up 5% compared to last year.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Another Blog !!! Evil Black Economist Books and Papers
We have ust created a new site for books, papers and other references. This site just holds the references to books and journal articles. If you are looking for something good to read or reseach, then check this list. This site fits well with the other blog "Black Economic Research" which looks at individual journal articles with Black related themes and discusses the details.
The new blog is called Evil Black Economist Books and Papers. Here is the link.
The new blog is called Evil Black Economist Books and Papers. Here is the link.
What was the Black Economic Research Center ?
The Black Economic Research Center was a think tank found by economist Robert S. Browne in 1969. The goal of the center was to improve the economic condition of US Blacks. The centers principle publication was "The review of Black Political Economy". The center ceased operation in 1980. The archives are located at the New York Public Libraries's Schomberg branch.
Apologies for the March Unemployment Report: Phoned it in !!!
I really got sloppy on the editing. You can't "phone it in" in this business.
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