A quick (fun) analysis of the crowd demographics at Microsoft CEO annoucement

Corporate Culture in the US is incredibile self interested and secretive.  Which is why we love glassdoor.com. We know employee cannot be fully honest, either because of corporate brainwashing or self-censorship.  But at least they are trying.

"It is difficult to free fools from chains they revere" -- Volatire

Also economics can be about using commonsense to figure out how to collect important economic data. In this case we use visual demographic clues to determine the demographic profile of a Microsoft development lab

Big tech companies are very secretive.  They spend millions defending trade secrets and guarding information (unless your the NSA).  This approach also spills over to HR and public disclosure.

So, when "the curtain is pulled back" you can get a revealing glimpse.  From these pictures, you get an idea of the demographics of the people who create Microsoft products. From a visual review only, we can see that they are male and young, with approximately 1/2 white men, 1/3 as

Unfortunately, when I scan the background crowd at Microsoft which was assembled for the announcement of new CEO Satya Nadella, I see only one visible black person beside John W. Thompson.  I also see very few women.

Picture #7. Gates, Nadella and Ballmer. Approximate demographic count: white men 30, white women 2, Asian men 6, black men 1. Note: Black person smiling in the rear next to two armed camera man

Picture #10. The new CEO Satya Nadella. This one is tougher due to blurry images. Approximate demographic count: 6 Asian men, 1 white women, 5 white men. Nadella is not included in the count.

Picture #11. John W Thompson, chairman of the board, speaks to the crowd.

Picture #13 below

This next photo is a gold mine so we will split up the tiers to help with the count.

Bottom Row: 17 white men, 9 Asian men
1st tier including glass: 20 white men, 4 white women, 5 Asian men, 3 Asian women
2nd tier: 7 white women, 5 white men, 4 Asian men, 3 Asian women.
3rd tier: 3 white men, 1 Asian man (including 2nd tier reflection)

Note: you wonder why the 2 floor is so much more diverse than the ground floor.

Here are the totals of all the picture counts

		white male	white female	Asian male	Asian female	black male	black female	total
Picture #7		30	2	6	0	1	0	39
Picture #10		5	1	6	0	0	0	12
Picture #13		45	11	19	6	0	0	81
Total		80	14	31	6	1	0	132

Here are the percentage breakdowns

		white male	white female	Asian male	Asian female	black male	black female	total
Picture #7		23%	2%	5%	0%	1%	0%	30%
Picture #10		4%	1%	5%	0%	0%	0%	9%
Picture #13		34%	8%	14%	5%	0%	0%	61%
Total		61%	11%	23%	5%	1%	0%	100%

Microsoft would argue that the demographics of the total workforce are not as skewed. (Yawn).

We would say, in 30 years, Microsoft has done little, to change the male (white male) dominated IT development culture and the pictures prove it.

Lastly, it is interesting to note that Microsoft must rarely assemble this many people since they have no large meeting room.

Growth in Ballot Initiatives

It looks like both progressives and conservatives are using ballot initiatives to directly implement legislation. Here in New Jersey, we recently approved a small increase in the minimum wage from $7.25 to $8.25.

There was also another interesting ballot proposal in California that did not get enough signatures to be included on the november ballot. The voter initiave would have increased the oil and gas extraction tax to 8% in california and used the money to reduce education costs.  California has no natural resource extraction tax.

The website for the California Modernization and Economic Development Act

LA Times story on CMEDA. 

Altarum Institute: The Business Case for Racial Equality

The Altarum Institute and the W.K. Kellog Foundation have published a paper called "The Busniess case for Racial Equality".  The report document studies which show increasing minority wealth and income would add to the GDP, reduce health care costs, add to government tax revenuse, increase producitivity, reduce government transfer payments and increase corporate profits.

Some of the proposal include ending residential segragation, end school segregation, reducing the prison population and investing in education.

We believe, while the proposal are good, the US economy is a slow growth, zero-sum economy with winners and losers.  There is absolutely no incentive for people who benefit from the system to help those who do not.

Reducing poverty by moving Poor people to Rich Neighborhoods

One of the best and cheapest solutions to long term poverty is moving poor people to rich neighborhoods.

New Jersey was ordered to create just such a plan i 1983 but has resisted.

This paper studies the effect of the Mount Laural ruling in New Jersey in 1983 and the subsequent creation of the Ethel Lawrence Homes in Mount Laurel, NJ

The paper called: "Lessons from Suburbia in Standford Universities Pathways Spring 2013" documents a model of why residents have lower mental stress levels and higher achivement in school.

November 2013 Unemployment Analysis: Unemployment rate drops to 7.0%; 203K new jobs accross all sectors

The US unemployment rate fell to 7.0% as the 203,000 Non Farm Payroll jobs were created 

The US national unemployment rate fell to 7.0% as the economy continues to recover from the 2007-2009 recession. The November report had the moderate job growth but less than expected given need to support 4.1% annual GDP growth as reported by the BEA.  If the economy continues to grow above 4.0%, we could see job gains above 300,000 per month.

There was a broad, across the board increase in Non Farm Payrolls except information and finance. There were +14,000 government jobs created at the state and local level.

Below is a chart of steady job growth since December 2009 with an average of 194,000 jobs created over the past 12 months.

The national unemployment rate decreased to 7.0% which means there were 10.9 million unemployed workers out of a potential labor force of 155.2 million. There were positive revisions in the previous months NFP numbers of +8K. jobs. The black unemployment rate was 12.5%.

The civilian labor force increased by 455,000 and the number of people reporting themselves as employed  increased by 818,000.  The labor force participation rate was 63.0% and the employment to population ratio was 58.6%.

The private sector added 203,000 jobs while the government lost -7,000 jobs. There were 4.1 million people classified as long-term unemployed (out of work for 26 weeks or longer), the same as last month.   About 7.7 million people who were underemployed (working part time but wanted full time work). A total of 18.6 million workers were unemployed or underemployed (12.0% of the workforce).

The unemployment rate for women was calculated at 6.2% and men at 6.7%, while the rates for other groups remained largely unchanged: teenagers (21%), whites (6.2%), and blacks (12.5%). The Hispanic rate dropped by -37 basis points to 8.7%. A huge drop show the economy is recovering is paces that generate Hispanic employment.  Black teenage unemployment was 36%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by about 1% on the news then moved well above 16000 for the month to close at 16,500 for the year.

The Political Economy

In the news of the political economy, the furloughed federal government workers returned to work and Janet Yellen will replace Ben Bernanke as the chairman of the federal reserve.

The Big Story

The big story is the continued high unemployment rate, low wages and slow growing economy.The year 2014 is shaping up a a decivisve year in US economic news.  In 2014, we will finally have gained back all of the jobs lost during the recession.

Black Unemployment

The national black unemployment rate was set at 12.5%. The number of black people holding jobs increased by +101,000 while the labor force was reduced by -6K causing a 0.5% decrease in the unemployment rate. The 12 month average black unemployment rate has been 13.3%, so we are finally dropping below the 12 month trend.

There was a 1% decrease in the "Real" black unemployment rate.  There were also improvements in the national rate (-26 basis points) and the black rate and U-6 rate (-0.6%) each leading to a large improvement in the "real" black unemployment rate.

Household Survey Details for November

As previously mention, there economy recovered from the government furhough. However, all of the trends for the long term unemployed worsened in November

The long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) was 4.1 million people which represents 37.3% of the unemployed.  The median duration of unemployment was 17.0  weeks  while the average duration was 37.2 weeks.  

The “work part-time, wants full-time,” fell to 7.7 million.  This is a measure of excess labor in the marketplace. About 2.1 million workers were marginally attached to the labor pool.  They have looked for work in the last 12 months but not in the last four weeks.    The report estimated that there were 762K discouraged workers (part of marginally attached) who are not looking because they believe there are no jobs for them.

All three categories dropped in November which is a postive sign of a tightening labor market. 

Establishment(Business) Survey Results for February

Non Farm Payroll increased by 203,000 which is well above the 12 month average of 150K jobs created since Dec 2009 (+194K Average for past 12 months). Shockingly, even government payrolls expanded(+7,000). Growth was broad based, with gains in manufacutring and services. Transportation added 30,000 and retail trade added 22,000 postions while business services increased by 35,000. Healthcare added 29.6K and leisure services jobs increased by 17,000.

Key sectors of the economy fared well. Construction added 17,000 while Manufacturing jumped 27,000 spots.  Temp Help, a negative indictor, grew by 16,400 workers.

Below is a chart of the job gains in the non farm payroll categories. 

Non-Farm Payroll Revision

September was revised up from +165K to +175 and October was revised down -4K to from 204,000 to 200,000 for a total upward revision of +8K.

ADP

ADP report a non farm payroll increase of 215,000 jobs. Small business (1-49) employees accounted for 105,000 new jobs. Medium sized business(50-499) added 48,000. And large businesses(500>) added 65,000 employees.

Tax Scam Charity or Corporate Welfare ??: The Taskforce for Global Health is #3 on Forbes charity list (opps)

I was looking for a charity that helps people get jobs.  The only large charity in US who's mission is to help people find jobs is Goodwill Industries. So I made a donation.   I used the Forbes large US charity list to find Goodwill Industries.

Note: In general I believe charities are regressive: they steal tax money from the poor and give to rich charities like operas. 

I then proceeded to review the list a little closer. Goodwill Industries is on the list. #6. OK. Respectable. Then I looked the list over. I recognized almost every name as a well established charity except #3. What the heck is the The Taskforce on Global Health(TFGH) ? Never heard of them. And they are number three. Something is suspicious.

As a US Charity, they are ranked #3 at $1.7 Billion. And they are located in a medium sized house in Decatur, GA at 325 Swanton Way, Decatur, Georgia, close to Emory University. I have been to Decatur.  I have waited to transfer from the bus to Marta there. It is a surprising place to find a charity that gave away $1.7 billion dollars.

When you look at their operating budget, it's only about $30 million dollars. The Taskforce on Global Health receives 100% of it's donations as goods or so-called in-kind donations. The goods never pass though Decatur; other the title. The US pharm companies ship the goods directly from their warehouses to the over seas charities.

When you read about the charity(on Wikipedia and through google), it looks like some Emory University doctors/professors want to develop vaccines for unique/obscure diseases in developing countries. But the program has grown immensely since the start. It has far exceeds it original scope.  And it's seems to be driven by US pharmaceutical companies looking for a tax break.

In summary, what was original a good idea, getting drug companies to donate medicines for under treated diseases in developing countries has expanded into a tax write off or corporate subsidy for $1.7 billion dollars.

There are three other big problems that are immediately apparent

1) Do the donated medicines have actual value in developing countries.  Is a facial acne cream or and ED pill need by some fighting malaria ?

2) What basis are they using to record the donation and reduce their tax bill ?  US pharm prices are the highest in the world while prices overseas for the same drug are regulated.  Do the pharm companies receive the full US cost/selling price for medicines that are worth much less ?

3) Do the medicines have a limited life span ? Most medicines are donated toward the end of their expiration date.  Do they sit in charity warehouses until after they have expired ? Note: While it may be illegal, many medicine retain their efficacy long after expiration.


v4

Goodwill Industries: The only large US charity dedicated to getting prople jobs

Goodwill Indstries is in the only large charity in the US dedicated to helping people get jobs.  The work on creating jobs, training people for jobs, and getting employers to hire people.

Goodwill Industries

How amazing is that ?  Of the top 50 charities in the United States, only one is dedicated to getting people jobs.

Forbes List of top 50 US Charities

Sadly, it also looks like there is a scam on the list.  Number 3, Taskforce for Global Health, Decatur, GA which received $1.7 billion in donated medicines. Looks like the US pharmaceutial industry is dumping inflated high priced medicines for a tax break.

Ver.Di: German Service Workers Union protests Amazon's policies

We were reading about VER.DI, the German service workers union protest against Amazon not paying the prevailing wage in German warehouses. Amazon calls it's employees logistic workers rather than catalog or internet fulfillment workers and can thus pay a lower wage.

Members of Ver.Di were on hand to picket the Amazon headquarters in December.

Here is the story from Internet Retailer about Amazon's tactic.

Arthur Brooks in the NYT: Work Makes you Happy

A New York Times Opinion by Arthur C. Brooks called "A Formula for Happiness" discusses the contribution work can make toward happineess.  The author believes that happiness is determined by genes, life circumstance and work.

About 48% of your happiness is determine by your inherited traits.

About 40% is short and medium term rewards such as buying stuff, family events, or graduating high school. The effect wears off quickly.

The remaining 12% are discrenary activities that include faith, family, freinds and work.  Friends and family are obvious, but work is the most interesting. Meaningful and fulfilling work can deliver personal happiness and financial reward.

The American Enterprise Institute calls this happiness effect "Earned Success".  The times editorial is light on the AEI philosopy but you can get a bigger dose on YouTube. Arthur Brooks: The secret to happiness.

The video on youtube discusses happiness and the it's AEI pro entrepreneurship (pro business) philosophy. The AEI promotes free enterprise as a "moral goal."

Here is another reseacher, Dan Gilbert talking about synthentic versus real happiness. Ted Talks: Dan Gilbert, the surprising science of happiness.

There are two issues we have with the reseach: 1) The low value given to work as a generator of happiness, 2) second is the twist the American Enterprise Insititue gives the reseach at the end to support their position.

First, we can't believe work contributes only part of the overal all 12% happiness.  For many of us the work is also closely entertwined with self esteem, financial empowerment and health.

Second, the reseach all makes sense up until when the AEI tries to slip in it's economic message.  Work has a value above it's financial return. Work in all forms is valuable: private, public and non-profit.

Bloomberg: Fraternity Affirmative Action or Meritocracy Not

Fraternity members have their own secret affarmative action program.  Bloomberg has the details in a piece called "Secret Handshakes Greet Frat Brothers on Wall Street". The new film "Wolf of Wall Street" publicizes the male dominated culture of the financial industry.

We have long known networks constitute a form of affirmative action for the powerful and their off spring.

What is most disappointing is how privilage networks are described as meritoracies when so many are excluded.