Saturday, October 15, 2011

The September employment situation was slightly positive

The September employment situation was slightly positive

The report showed 103,000 jobs were created in September in the US, which eased fears of a double dip recession. The 103K figure is good for post recession job creation number. 100K is now the new “psychological” standard for the “street”, so beating that number is a slight positive. It helps the president politically, but the sustained 9.0% rate is very high by historical standards. Private sector jobs increased by 137,000 while government shrank by -34,000.

Reducing the 9.0% plus unemployment rate without a large increase in consumer spending or government stimulus is all but impossible. The structure of the US economy, the global economy and the US consumer spending have changed. So we will have to live with 8% or 9% for at least five years. This is the new normal.

The overall unemployment rate was 9.1% and the Black unemployment rate stayed at 16%. The rate for White (8.0%) and Hispanics (11.3%) was little changed.

The long-term unemployed were 6.2 million (44.6% of total). The part-employed for economic reasons rose to 9.3 Million and the marginally attached stayed the same at 2.5 Million.

Non farm payroll employment increased by 103,000 jobs with growth in business services, healthcare and construction. Information technology increased by 34,000 as the Verizon strike was settled and the workers returned.

Average work week increased by 0.1 hours and wages by $0.03 cents. The employment diffusion index (a hiring signal) was still positive (55.4) but down 0.2.

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