Friday, February 24, 2017

Economic State of Black America 2016


The Evil Black Economist releases the 2016 Economic State of Black America report. The report is dedicated to Martin Luther King. The report is grouped into four sections: Wealth, Income, Health, and Happiness

This project grew out of a discussion over how to measure the impact of the Presidency of Barack Obama.  President Obama is widely viewed as have a very successful presidency in terms of accomplishments and popularity. However his success was affected by two larger issues: the 2007 recession and 35 years of a shrinking middle class. He did have one major accomplishment and a slew of minor successes.  His major legacy is improving health care access for 20 million who previously were uninsured.

Summary

Overall, Black Americans, like many in the US, are not doing well. The 2007 recession and financial crisis led to a huge number of foreclosures wiping out a huge amount of Black wealth. Jobs remain scarce. As of 2016 has Black unemployment has recovered to 2007 levels.. The Black unemployment rate of 7.8% is the same or below the 2007 rate. Black people have lost 10 years of income and wealth.

There is some good news.  Incomes are slowly rising. More Blacks are participating in the labor force while White Men drop out.  Blacks tend to work in Service and Transportation jobs. Black business ownership was flat in the latest survey.

Living in Poverty was report by 26% of Blacks. One in five (21.5%) Black households worries about food and 26% collect food stamps.

Educationally, we graduate high school at almost the same rate as Whites but attend college at a lower rate (10% difference). We graduate from college at an even lower rate(20% difference) as compared to Whites. Black student debt is estimated at twice that of Whites.

White economic indicators are trending flat or down, social and health indicators are moving in the right direction.  Life expectancy has increased while infant mortality has decreased. Health insurance coverage is up and crime has dropped.

Finally, the measures of economic opportunity do not look good. By one estimate, a Black poor child has only a 4% chance of being a rich adult and a 50% chance of remaining a poor adult.

Finally, if you have a Black statistic you would like added to the report, please send and e-mail to:

evilblackeconomist@gmail.com

Thanks

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Wealth / Home Ownership / Housing Statistics 

Net Worth

Net worth is the most basic measure of wealth.  It is the value of assets a household controls.  Middle class people in the US usually have one large asset: their home. The rich have multiple real estate properties and investment assets. The poor have no assets at all.

The table below lists household assets from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances. The median (one-half above and one-half below) is a better measure of assets because people like Oprah and Bob Johnson (BET) skew the average number.

The ratio of Black wealth to White wealth was 12/100 meaning Blacks has just 12% of the assets of Whites and Whites were 8 times richer than Blacks. 


2013 Median 2013 Mean Median Ratio to White
White $139,857 $572,870 100%
Black 17,387 101,736 12.4%
Hispanic/Latino 15,758 126,808 11.3%
Other 84,284 460,960 60.3%

Here is the trend over the past 12 years. Black home ownership took a huge hit during the last recession.

























Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finance, 2013


Home Ownership

Total Stock Levels (in Thousands[000])

2011 2013 2015
Total 114,907 115,852 118,290
White 92,820 93,284 93,760
Black 14,694 15,015 15,998
Hispanic/Latino 13,841 14,675 15,617
Asian 4,620 4,725 5,477

Source: US Census, American Housing Survey


Home Ownership Rate

 The Black home ownership rate has recovered since the 2007 recession but still trails the White rate by more than 30%.  Home Ownership Rate is the number of household
4Q 2016 Rate
Total 63.7%
White 72.2%
Black 41.7%
Hispanic/Latino 46.3%
Other 53.7%

Chart of US home ownership rates over time period 2013 to 2016.


Source: US Census, Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Home Ownership, Q4 2016. Note: 4Q 2016 was released as we went to press.

 Mortgage Loans

The primary way people build assets in the US is through home ownership. And the main way to buy a home is with a mortgage loan. However, the mortgage loan market has under gone a huge crisis. In the 2000's the "sub-prime" mortgage market was developed and in the 2007 it collapsed.  Now we are in a slow recovery from that event.

The majority of Black mortgages are non-conventional mortgages.

Black 2013 Mortgage Loan Applications 186,074/ Originated 113,723
Black 2014 Mortgage Loan Applications 206,182 / Originated 130,176

We continue to see lower rates of loans made to Black applicants. Also, a higher percentage of the loan are non-conventional loans when compared to Whites.




Source: 2016 State of Housing in Black American. NAREB.
www.nareb.com/site-files/uploads/2016/08/NAREB-SHIBA-REPORT-2016-final.pdf

Income
Median Weekly Earnings 


20152016
White$847$881
Black$643$675
Hispanic$624$646
Asian$1,022$1,092


Black / White 2016 Ratio 80%
Black Men / White Men 2016  Ratio 78%
Black Women / White Women 2016 Ratio 84%

Here is a chart of median weekly earnings for the period 2000-2016.


Source: BLS, 2016, Median Usual Weekly Earnings from CPS

Household Income

 Black households have a median (half above and half below) income of about earn about $37,000 dollars.

Median Household Income


2014 2015 Change
White $56,931 $60,109 5.6%
Black $35,439 $36,898 4.1%
Hispanic $42,540 $45,148 6.1%
Asian $74,382 $77,166 3.7%



Below is a graph of the trend since 1972.



Source: US Census, Table 1, Income and Earnings Summary Measures by Selected Characteristics: 2014 and 2015

Total Income for Population

One common question is: "How much money do Black people in the US earn collectively?" Well, there are two different measures: one is income and the other is called "Total Money Income (TMI)" which includes transfer payments.  In 2015, we earned $610 Billion in income and had a TMI of $898 billion.

The figure for Black Alone or in Combination is even larger at $949 Billion. Black AOIC includes Black people and mixed race and Hispanic people who identify as Black.

Household Income from "Income and Poverty in US 2015, Table 1"
Population and Income in Thousands (000)

Pop. 20142014
Income		 Pop.
2015		2015
Income		 Total
Change		 Pop. Change Real Income Change
Total
124,587
$6,692,582,175
125,819
$7,110,750,203
6.25%
 0.99% 5.26%
White
84,228
$5,081,073,004
84,445
$5,315,788,959
4.62%
 0.26% 4.36%
Black
16,437
$582,500,308
16,539
$610,251,324
4.76%
 0.62%4.14%
Asian
6,040
$449,282,718
6,328
$488,345,903
8.69%
 4.77%3.92%
Hisp./Latino
16,239
$690,803,479
16,667
$752,466,015
8.93%
 2.63% 6.29%



Total Money Income from "Income and Poverty in US 2015, Table 1A"
Population and Income in Thousands (000)

Pop. 20142014
Income		 Pop.
2015		2015
Income		 Total
Change
Total
124,587
$9,446,822,385
125,819
 $9,972,791,397
5.57%
White
84,228
$6,953,850,360
84,445
$7,227,225,325
3.93%
Black AOIC
17,198
$888,798,979
17,322
$949,332,210
 6.81%
Black Alone
16,437
$843,035,960
16,539
$898,927,728
 6.63%
Asian
6,040
$589,952,196
6,328
$667,078,776
 13.07%
Hisp./Latino
16,239
$935,369,145
16,667
$1,060,221,204
 13.35%


Occupations

Where do Black people work ?

Blacks are underrepresented in Management, Business, Science and the Arts(MBSA) and in Natural Resources and Farming, Construction and Maintenance(NRCM). They are over represented in Services and Transportation.

Key:
PTMM - Production, Transportation and Material Management


Occupations by Race 2015
Occupation Total % Male % Female %
Total Total150,534,773 100% 79,120,041 100% 71,414,732 100%
MBSA --- 37.1% --- 33.5% --- 44.1%
Services --- 18.0% --- 14.8% --- 21.5%
Sales & Office --- 23.6% --- 17.1% --- 30.8%
NRCM --- 9.0% --- 31.1% --- 0.9%
PTMM --- 12.3% --- 31.1% --- 5.8%
White Total 112,857,159 100% 60,181,754 --- 52,675,405 ---
MBSA --- 35.2% --- 33.5% --- 43.1%
Services --- 43.1% --- 13.2% --- 19.5%
Sales & Office --- 23.8% --- 17.1% --- 31.3%
NRCM --- 9.6% --- 17.2% --- 0.9%
PTMM --- 11.6% --- 17.3% --- 5.1%
Black Total 17,198,924 100% 7,885,268 100% 9,313,656 100%
MBSA --- 28.7% --- 22.8% --- 33.6%
Services --- 25.0% --- 22.0% --- 27.5%
Sales & Office --- 25.2% --- 18.7% --- 30.8%
NRCM --- 5.1% --- 10.5% --- 0.6%
PTMM --- 16.0% --- 26.0% --- 7.5%
Hispanic / Latino Total 24,845,756 100% 14,055,426 100% 10,790,330 100%
MBSA --- 20.5% --- 16.5% --- 25.7%
Services --- 25.6% --- 21.1% --- 31.5%
Sales & Office --- 21.9% --- 14.7% --- 31.3%
NRCM --- 15.6% --- 26.1% --- 2.0%
PTMM --- 16.3% --- 21.6% --- 9.5%
Asian Total 8,633,703 100% 4,504,912 100% 4,128,791 100%
MBSA --- 51.0% --- 52.1% --- 49.8%
Services --- 16.7% --- 13.6% --- 20.2%
Sales & Office --- 19.8% --- 16.7% --- 23.2%
NRCM --- 2.9% --- 5.3% --- 0.4%
PTMM --- 9.6% --- 12.4% --- 6.5%




Total Employment Levels

Black employment continues to grow while White employment is decreasing.

Black Employment 2016 18,292,000 people
Black Employment 2015 17,802,000 An increase of 490,000 people



 Unemployment

Key Black Unemployment Rates at the end of 2016

 Table Black Unemployment 7.8%
Black Men 7.6% (8.7% 2015)
Black Women 6.8% (7.1% 2015)
Black Teenagers 25.7%

The Black unemployment rate has traditionally been twice the White rate. The Black unemployment rate of 7.8% is the lowest since August 2007. 

Labor Force Participation

The Black labor market participation rate has trended upward in the past year to 62.4% from a low of 60.3% in 2013. Blacks are returning to work as Whites drop out. 




Source: BLS, January Labor Report and website



Business Ownership and Formation

Black business ownership has been flat while White owners have decreased and Hispanic and Asian business owners have increased.




Source: 2012 Survey of Business Owners and 2014 Survey of Entrepreneurs

Poverty

People in Poverty



2014 % of Total
Population		 2015 % of Total
Population
Total 46,657,000 14.8% 43,123,000 13.5%
White 19,652,000 10.1% 17,786,000 9.1%
Black 10,755,000 26.2% 10,020,000 24.1%
Hispanic/Latino 13,104,000 23.6% 12,133,000 21.4%
Asian 2,137,000 12.0% 2,078,000 11.4%

Source: US Census, Income and Poverty in the US, 2015

Child Poverty (18 and Under)


2014 % of Total
Population		 2015 % of Total
Population
Total 15,540,000 21.1% 14,509,000 19.7%
White 9,602,000 17.9% 9,204,000 17.2%
Black 4,090,000 37.1% 3,651,000 32.9%
Hispanic/Latino 5,745,000 31.9% 5,269,000 28.9%
Asian 524,000 14.0% 466,000 12.3%



Source: US Census, Income and Poverty in the US, 2015

Food Security by Household 2015

 Food security is defined at three levels: 1) food secure, 2) low food security and 3) very low food security. Food secure is defined as "access at all times to enough food for an active, healthy
life for all household members." People who are food insecure do not meet condition one. They have either low food or very low food security. Very low food security is defined as "one or more household members had reduced eating patterns and their eating patterns were disrupted at times during the year because the household lacked money and other resources for food."



Race Total Food Secure %Insecure
Total		 Insecure
%		 Low Low % Very Low Very Low %
White 83,931 75,563 90.0% 8,368 10.0% 4,759 5.7% 3,6094.3%
Black 15,734 12,35778.5 3,377 21.5 2,127 13.6 1,2507.9
Hispanic 16,803 13,592 80.9 3,211 19.1 2,132 12.7 1,079 6.4
Other 8,695 7,803 89.7 892 10.3 521 6.0 371 4.3

Source: Household Food Security in the United States 2015, www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/err215/err-215.pdf


Food Stamps (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)

About 5.7 million Black households receive food stamps in 2015. 


2015 Total (000) % Children % Elderly % Disabled %
Total 22,293 100% 9,510 100% 4,361 100% 4,498 100%
White 8,757 39.3% 3,092 32.5% 1,857 42.6% 2,047 45.5%
Black 5,747 25.8% 2,335 24.5 915 21.0% 1,271 28.3%
Hispanic/Latino 2,538 11.4% 1,133 11.9 575 13.2% 347 7.7%
Asian 561 2.5% 194 2.0 250 5.7% 38 0.9%


Individual Food Stamps Participants

Eleven million Black people participate in the food stamp program.


2015 Total(000) % Female(000) % Male(000) %
Total 45,184 100% 25,637 56.7 19,547 43.3
White 16,574 36.7% 9,405 20.8% 7,170 15.9%
Black 11,772 26.1% 6,846 15.2 4,926 10.9%
Hispanic/Latino 7,730 17.1% 4,336 9.6 3,394 7.5%
Asian 1,301 2.9% 716 1.6 585 1.3%



Children Raised by Single Parents (in 000)

Black Kids (18 old and under) Total 11,101
Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with both parents       4,294
Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with Mother   5,722

Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with Father    439

Black Kids (18 old and under) Living with Single Parent     55%

White 19%
Asian 13%
Hispanic 29%

Source: US Census, Families and Living Arrangements October 2016

Education

Educational Attainment
2015
Total Pop. 18 and older High School or Higher % of Pop. Bachelors or Higher % of Pop.
Total 242,831,196 210,098,654 86.5% 66,036,180 27.2%
White 161,426,754 143,105,261 88.7% 50,142,764 31.1%
Black 24,689,835 20,678,704 83.8% 4,812,215 19.5%
Hisp./Latino 29,952,299 19,439,898 64.9% 4,275,337 14.3%
Asian 11,220,496 9,647,290 86.0% 5,770,522 51.4%


Source: 2015 American Community Survey


Graduation Rate from 4-year program

Black 6 year or less college graduation rate (2008-2014) 40.9%
Black Male 35.3%
Black Female 44.8%
=======================================
White 63%
Black 41%
Hispanic 53%
Asian 71%



4 Year College Degree Graduation Rate (With 6-years) for Males and Females



Source DOE: National Center for Educational Statistics, Postsecondary Graduation Rate, 2014, Table 326.10

Note: Cohorts are from 1996 to 2007.


High School Graduation Rate

Note: We used "Persons 25-29 educational attainment high school or greater" as an indicator of having completed high school or the equivalent.


Race201420152016
Total 90.8% 91.2% 91.7%
White 95.6 95.4 95.2
Black 91.9 92.5 91.1
Hispanic/Latino 74.7 77.1 80.6
Asian 96.6 95.8 96.8






Source Department of Education: National Center for Educational Statistics, Postsecondary Graduation Rate, 2014, Table 104.20

College and Graduate Student Debt 

Black college students have about $7,300 dollars in extra debt compared to White college students and $24,000 more 4 years later.



2012
Under Graduate 
Borrowing
Total Owed 
4 years Later
Total $16,491 ---
White $16,046 $28,006
Black 23,421 52,726
Hispanic/Latino 15,663 29,949
Asian 11,935 26,253


Note: The US Department of Education does not collect statistics on total debt by race. Brookings has estimated the amounts.

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/research/black-white-disparity-in-student-loan-debt-more-than-triples-after-graduation/, Oct, 2016 Report(2012 Data)

Infant Mortality

The Black infant mortality rate is 11.11 per every one thousands live births. 


Per 1000 Live Births 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total 6.39 6.14 6.07 5.98 5.98
White 5.33 5.18 5.07 5.04 5.06
Black 12.40 11.46 11.45 11.19 11.11
Hispanic/Latino 5.29 5.25 5.15 5.11 5.00
Asian 4.40 4.27 4.36 4.06 4.07



Source: National Vital Statistics Report
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/nvsr64_09.pdf

Life Expectancy

Black men have a life expectancy of 72.3 years while Black women have a life expectancy of 78.4 years. 




In Years 2013 2014
Total 78.8 78.8
White 78.9 78.8
Black 75.1 75.2
Hispanic/Latino 81.6 81.8


Source: CDC National Vital Statistics Reports https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr65/nvsr65_08.pdf

Teenage Birth Rate(15-19)

The teenage birth is measured per 1000 live births. Black teenagers age 15-19 had a birth rate of about 32 per 1000 which is almost of half of the 2006 rate.  The drop was -73% over the 10 year period.



Per 1000 Live Births 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total 41.1 41.5 40.2 37.9 34.2 31.3 29.4 26.5 24.2 22.3
White 26.7 27.2 26.7 25.7 23.5 21.7 20.5 18.6 17.3 16.0
Black 61.9 62.0 60.4 56.8 51.5 47.3 43.9 39.0 34.9 31.8
Hispanic/Latino 77.4 75.3 70.3 63.6 55.7 49.6 46.3 41.7 38.0 34.9
Asian 15.3 14.8 13.8 12.6 10.9 10.2 9.7 8.7 7.7 6.9


Source: National Center for Health Statistics, NCHS Data Brief No. 264, November 2016 and https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db259.pdf
Unmarried Birthrate

 Seventy-One(71) percent of all Black children are born to unmarried women.
Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women


Percent of Live Births 2015
Total 40.3%
White 40.4
Non-Hispanic White 29.2
Black 70.1
Non-Hispanic Black 70.6
Hispanic/Latino 53.0
Asian 16.4

Birth Rates for Unmarried Women



Per 1000 Live Births 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total 47.2 50.3 51.8 51.8 49.9 47.5 46.0 45.3 44.3 43.9
White 30.4 32.4 33.8 34.3 33.6 32.9 32.3 32.1 31.7 31.8
Black 67.2 70.7 71.4 71.0 68.7 65.3 63.7 62.6 61.7 61.5
Hispanic/Latino 96.2 101.5 102.1 97.3 89.4 80.6 75.1 72.6 69.9 68.5
Asian/Pac. Isl. 22.8 23.4 23.9 23.9 23.6 22.3 22.4 22.9 21.8 21.7


Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 64, No. 12, December 23, 2015




Health Insurance Coverage

Close to 90% of all people have health insurance including 88% of Black people.  Health insurance is either private or government funded. 


Pop.2014 Insured % Uninsured % Pop.2015 Insured % Uninsured %
Total 316,168 283,200 89.6% 32,968 10.4% 318,868 289,903 90.9% 28,966 9.1%
White 195,352 180,528 92.4% 14,824 7.6% 195,646 182,546 93.3% 13,100 6.7%
Black 41,226 36,380 88.3% 4,847 11.8% 41,703 37,076 88.9% 4,627 11.1%
Hisp/Lat 55,614 44,556 80.1% 11,059 19.9% 56,873 47,637 83.8% 9,235 16.2%
Asian 17,796 16,137 90.7% 1,659 9.3% 18,249 16,889 92.6% 1,360 7.4%

Source: US Census, Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2015


Crime

Arrest data for key crime categories. Some categories were combined to save space.


Arrests Total White % Black % Hispanic % Asian %
Total 8,248,709 5,753,212 69.7% 2,197,140 26.6% 1,204,862 18.4% 101,064 1.2%
Murder/Manslaughter 8,508 3,908 45.9% 4,347 51.1% 1,370 20.8% 126 1.5%
Rape 17,370 11,809 68.0% 4,907 28.2% 3,516 26.8% 271 1.6%
Assault 287,566 184,024 64.0% 92,237 32.1% 59,883 24.6% 4,631 1.6%
RBLT 1,192,211 807,016 89.6% 350,180 10.4% 158,870 16.7% 14,472 1.2%
Violent Crime Total 386,467 232,180 60.1% 140,543 36.4% 77,557 23.9% 5,696 1.5%
Property Crime Total 1,125,950 779,529 69.2% 312,647 27.8% 146,980 16.4% 13,892 1.2%
Drug Related 1,136,950 803,809 80.1% 307,140 19.9% 186,841 20.3% 12,436 1.1%
DUI+Alcohol 1,340,158 1,081,956 80.7% 181,008 13.5% 236,054 21.6% 22,207 1.7%
Other 2,455,238 1,683,297 68.6% 688,146 28.0% 316,689 16.6% 25,197 1.0%



RBLT is Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Theft and Motor Vehicle Theft. Drug related is the same as Drug Abuse Violations. DUI plus Alcohol is Driving while under the influence, Liquor Laws and Drunkenness.


Source: FBI Uniform Crime Report, 2015, Arrest by Race and Ethnicity

Incarceration

Black 2014 Jail Population                                                     263,800
Black 2015 Sentenced Prisoners State and Federal               523,000
Black Incarceration Rate (>18 or older) per 100,000                         1745


Male Female
Year Total Total Male White Black Hispanic Other Total Female White Black Hispanic Other
2011 1,537,415 1,433,741 465,100 555,300 331,500 --- 103,674 51,100 26,000 18,400 ---
2012 1,511,480 1,410,191 451,252 527,768 315,234 115,937 101,289 49,352 23,386 16,968 11,584
2013 1,516,879 1,412,745 454,100 526,000 314,600 118,100 104,134 51,500 23,100 17,600 11,900
2014 1,508,636 1,402,404 453,500 516,900 308,700 123,300 106,232 53,100 22,600 17,800 12,800
2015 1,476,847 1,371,879 446,700 501,300 301,500 122,400 104,968 52,700 21,700 17,900 12,700





Male per 100,000 Female per 100,000
Year Total Total Male White Black Hispanic Other Total Female White Black Hispanic Other
2011 492 932 478 3,023 1,238 --- 65 51 129 71 ---
2012 480 909 463 2841 1158 972 63 49 115 64 90
2013 478 904 466 2791 1130 998 65 51 113 65 93
2014 471 890 465 2724 1091 968 65 53 109 64 93
2015 458 863 457 2613 1043 929 64 52 103 63 90


Source Bureau of Justice Statistics
Happiness

Harris Poll Happiness Index by Race


Race 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
White 35 35 32 32 34
Black 35 41 40 44 36
Hispanic 32 36 39 35 28


Source: Harris Poll Happiness Index, June 2013
http://www.theharrispoll.com/health-and-life/Are_You_Happy__It_May_Depend_on_Age__Race_Ethnicity_and_Other_Factors.html

Social Mobility

Social mobility as measured by generational income levels has been dropping. We want to look at some data published in 2014 by Bhash Mazumder of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. He compiled data by race on inter-generational incomes.

He found that White men in the lowest one-fifth (quintile) of income had a 26% change of remaining in the lowest fifth and a 10% chance of moving to the highest fifth(top quintile). Black men from the lowest fifth of income and a 50% chance of remaining in the lowest group and only a 4% chance of making it to the top fifth.




Intergenerational Income Transition for Black men.




Note: Data is from 1978-86 for parents and 2003-2007 for children. Data analysis was published in 2014.

Source: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/economic-perspectives/2014/1q2014-part1-mazumder-pdf.pdf

 https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-mobility-memos/2014/02/27/obamas-post-presidency-tackling-the-social-mobility-challenge-for-black-men/










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