Friday, July 15, 2016

US Economy created 287,000 NFP jobs in June but unemployment rate increased to 4.9%

The US Economy created 287,000 jobs in June according to the monthly BLS labor survey.There was a bounce due to settled labor strike and a recovery from last months number. The US national unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.9% as 414,000 returned to the workforce.

The Labor Force Participation rate was pegged at 62.7% around the all time low for the measure as many baby boomer retire and students stay in schoool. However, no one is quite sure why people are dropping out of the labor market.

Wage increase 2 cents and the average work week stayed at 34.4 hours.

Below is the national unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate.

On the non-farm payroll side, 287,000 new jobs were reported by business establishments. Government had a bump of 20K while services provided 256,000 positions. Healthcare and leisure and hospitality both added about 58,000 jobs each.

The mood of the country remained pessimistic as reported by the Gallup Organization with 29% satisfied with the direction of the country and 69% dissatisfied. Gallup also finds that 46% of workers held "good jobs" or jobs with 30 or more hours a week and 34% said they were "engaged" at work. ADP reported 172,000 new jobs and Paychex Small Business Index modestly increased to 100.81. The Paychex index has stayed between 100 and 101 since 2011.

Lets get to the householder numbers: 67,000 additional workers reported themselves as employed but 414,000 joined the work force of which 347K joined the unemployed. The participation rate was almost unchanged at 62.7%.

There were 1.98 million people classified as long-term unemployed (out of work for 26 weeks or longer),  About 5.84 million people who were underemployed (working part time but wanted full time work). A total of 13.6 million workers were unemployed or underemployed (8.6% of the workforce).

The Black unemployment rate has continued to fall but remains about two times the white rate. The labor force participation rate also mirrors the wider trend in society.  The rate is down five percentage points since 1999.

The estimated Black U-6 rate was computed to be 13.3%.

The Black unemployment rate continues to drop but remains about double the rate for whites.

The detailed changes in Non-Farm Payrolls do not look for for Manufacturing (+14,000) or Construction (0 - Zero). The biggest jumps were in health care and hospitality and leisure which both added about 58,000 positions.

NFP Revisions

The April report was revised upward +21,000 to 144,000 and the May report was altered downward -27K to 11,000 jobs.

ADP Employment Report

ADP reported 172,000 new payroll jobs split between 95,000 small business jobs (1-49 employees), 52,000 medium sized payroll jobs and 25,000 large corporate jobs(500 or more employees)

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