Monday, November 14, 2016

No change in key rates ahead of election: Unemployment stable at 4.9% with 161,000 new jobs

October Unemployment Wrap-up

Every major unemployment indicator has been "little changed" over the past 18 months. This report was no exception. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% as the 161,000 new employees found work in October according to the BLS monthly unemployment report. The report, which was released four days before the election, was ignored by both candidates. Wages rose $0.10 cents to $25.92 per hour at an annual rate of 4.6%. The unemployment rate has been 5.0% or below since October 2015.

The Labor Force Participation(LFP) rate was 62.8%. The figure has been flat since December 2013.

The Black unemployment rate rose to 8.6%, the second straight month of increase. The long term unemployed was also unchanged at $2.0 million.

Establishment Survey

Business reporting hiring 161,000 new workers in October. Both the business services (+43,000) and the healthcare sector (+39,000) added the highest number of new jobs.  The federal government add (+12,000) while manufacturing lost (-9,000) positions.

Black Unemployment

The Black unemployment rate was calculated at 8.6% after hitting a recent low of 8.1% in August. The Black LFP was 62% overall. Black men 20 and over participated in the job market at a 67% rate while 62% of Black women were in the labor force.

The national unemployment rate was 4.9%.

The Black labor force participation rate was a low as 60% in December 2013 but has since rebound to nearly 62%. Black unemployment was measured at 8.6%.

The Black unemployment rate continued to be significantly higher than the White or Hispanic/Latino rate.

Government added 19,000 jobs in October 2016.

Every category was up except manufacturing and retail trade.

We are adding a new chart which shows where the jobs are being created: in the good producing sector or in the service providing sector.   Service jobs are being created at a ratio of about five service performing to one goods producing jobs. The number of manufacturing jobs has steadily dropped since the recession due to the growth in imports and the efficiency of the manufacturing sector.

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