Sunday, September 4, 2011

Jobs will return by 2017!

The United States will return to pre-recession jobs levels around 2017 at the current growth rate.

When will the jobs lost during the great recession return to their December 2007 peak ? Basic forecasting techniques (line-fitting) tell us the answer: between 2016 and 2018 based on current Non Farm Payroll (NFP) growth statistics.

The simplified analysis was based on data from the bottom of the recession (Dec 2009) to the current jobs report (Aug 2011). We add approximately 80 thousands jobs on average each month.

At that current rate, we would reach 2007 job levels around 2017. Merry Christmas.

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