Thursday, February 23, 2012

Jobs hole since beginning of recession

The US economy has lost more than 8 million jobs during the recession. We have started to replace those jobs. But the quality and pay of the replacement jobs is a huge concern. Middle class wages have been frozen since the 1980's.

The chart below illustrates the "jobs hole" during the recssion which started in December 2007. The monthly Non Farm Payroll increase or decrease is shown a a blue bar chart and the cumulative jobs losses are displayed as a red line. Roughly three million new jobs have been created since the bottom of the "employment" recession in December 2009. The NBER dated the end of the "GDP" recession as June 2009.

Another common question to ask is when will the lost jobs return. Well they won't. They will be replaced with other jobs. We figure, using a simple forecasting model and data from 2009 to 2011, the US will be even on the jobs front by the year 2017.

The chart below illustrates the jobs deficit will end in 2017 when the jobs deficit will be erased.

No comments:

Blog Archive