Saturday, July 16, 2011

June unemployment report is worse than May. Black unemployment rises to 16.2%; National rate 9.2%

June unemployment report is worse than May. Black unemployment rises to 16.2%; National rate 9.2%

The June unemployment report was flat out bad. You have to wonder how much bad news is enough and when will something be done about unemployment. Only 18,000 net new jobs were created. That is the lowest since September 2010 when the economy was still losing jobs. The national unemployment rate rose to 9.2% and the Black unemployment rate rose to 16.2%. Economists had predicted over 100,000 new jobs. The lower than expected number has caused a stock market drop. You have to ask if anyone really cares about the unemployed.

Private non farm payroll increased +57,000 which was off set by a drop of -39,000 government workers. Employment increased in business services by just +12,000 while healthcare went up by +17,000. Manufacturing added +6K(durable +15K, non durable -9K). Construction also lost -9K. The biggest drop was in local government jobs which fell by 28,000.

Black Unemployment Up Again

Black unemployment increased again to 16.2%. It was 15.3% in Feb. 2011. The 16.2% was close to the BU peak of 16.5% in Mar/Apr 2010. In Jan 2007, the rate was 7.9 percent. About 2.88 million Black people remained unemployed in June, 2011 about the same number as May. The Black labor force participation rate was reported at 61.0%. In February 2010, it was 62.7. The number of Blacks holding jobs shrank by 15,000. An additional 47,000 Blacks dropped out of the labor force in June.

In other bad news, the long-term unemployed (out of work for more than 26 weeks) increased to 89,000 to 6.29 million. The long term unemployed are 44.4% of the total unemployed.

The number of part-time workers for economic reasons was 8.6 Million. These are people who would like full-time work but cannot find it. Marginally attached workers stayed around 2.7 million. These are people who have looked for work in the past 12 month but are not counted as part of the labor force. If they were included in the labor force, unemployment rate it would be 1.4% higher: 10.6%.

The number of discouraged workers dropped year-to-year. Last June there were 1.2 million. Currently there are 922,000 discouraged workers, a 18% drop. Discouraged workers have stopped looking for work because they believe no work is available for their skills.

Establishment Data

Non farm Payrolls recorded a token increase of 18,000. The private sector added only 57,000 jobs which were offset by a -39,000 drop in government jobs Retail trade stores added +5,000 and business and professional services added a meager 12,000. Health care added 17,000 and manufacturing added 6,000.

In other bad news, Temporary Help Services(THS) shrank by -12,000 jobs. THS is a closely watched, bell-weather category. Traditionally, it has grown during recessions as employers are unwilling to make the investment of hiring long term employees, then when the economy picks-up, the demand for temporary help drops. Lately, as employers’ use of “temps” has changed, temporary help has stayed strong.
The drop in THS coupled with a slow economic growth singnals a widespread lack of job opportunities across the economy. “Even temps can’t find jobs!”

Construction was down -9,000 jobs.. Construction employment is also closely watched as an economic indicator. Construction employment has been depressed since the collapse of the housing “bubble” in 2007.

And finally some downward revisions of prior month payrolls. The April new job creation number was revised down from +232,000 to +217,000 and May was revised down from +54K to +25K.

ADP reported 157,000 new jobs were added.

The monster help wanted index was at 146 , the highest level of demand since October 2008.

The weekly initial unemployment claims was at 427,00 for the week ending July 7th, 2011, still above 400,000 below which the US economy is considered to be adding jobs.


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